Oscar: WIld-Ass Guesses

Before the onslaught of critics' and guild awards, here's my stab at who will get the major Oscar nominations. All the major releases seem to have been seen by at least someone by now, but I'm sure the landscape will shift over the next month. Final predictions in January. All nominees in alphabetical order.

Best Picture:

American Gangster
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men

I wouldn't be gobsmacked if any of these don't make the cut, as there is no clear front-runner at this point. Atonement and No Country seem the safest bets, with Gangster and Clayton next. I'll stick in The Kite Runner to get the feel-good slot. There Will Be Blood may be too distasteful and idiosyncratic, and Into the Wild seems to have faded. I'm not buying (yet) the Tom O'Neill ejaculations for Sweeney Todd.

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You're Dead
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement

Rarely matches with Picture. I figure the directors will be kinder to PT Anderson than the general voting ranks, and will get a charge out of giving Lumet another nomination.


Best Actor:

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Other possibilities: Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild, Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War. Philip Seymour Hoffman may be undone by his own hard work, as he really deserves a nomination for Before the Devil but could split votes with The Savages. But he will probably get a supporting nod (see below).

Best Actress:

Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno

Four of these women are pretty safe, and I'm sticking with Jolie in the fifth slot out of pure stubborness. If she doesn't get it it will probably be Laura Linney for The Savages. Way outside chance for Amy Adams in Enchanted.

Best Supporting Actor:

Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Philip Bosco, The Savages
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Bardem and Wilkinson are locks, and Holbrook should be close to one. I've gone with a second old man, Bosco, which may be wrong-headed, but I have doubts about the others: Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood, Ethan Hawke, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Casey Affleck, Assassination of Jesse James, Ben Foster, 3:10 to Yuma.

Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Kelly MacDonald, No Country For Old Men
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Other possibilities include Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Ruby Dee, American Gangster, Jennifer Garner, Juno, Leslie Mann, Knocked Up, and Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement. Interesting thing about Ronan and Redgrave, they are two of three actresses (Romola Garai is the third) playing the same character in the film. If two are nominated it would be the first time two or more performers playing the same character in the same film would be nominated in the same category.