2009 Oscar Predictions, Round 1: Groping Blindly in the Dark

Next week the Oscar handicapping will get really serious, as the New York and L.A. Film Critics will both announce their winners, and the Golden Globe nominations will be announced. To avoid jumping on those bandwagons, I hereby submit for public ridicule my picks, even though I haven’t seen many of the films (I believe few have seen Avatar).

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

I’m really groping blindly in the dark in this category, given that there’s no precedent how expanding the category to ten nominees will work. I imagine the extra five will be allotted to similar films–that is, tony, snob-appeal critical darlings, and not popcorn-muncher fare like Star Trek (or The Blind Side, god forbid). But, the big guns of December: Invictus, Nine, and The Lovely Bones have been greeted with mixed response, so in the old world of five nominees they’d probably be discarded. They make not make it, but what films will replace them? Possibly Inglourious Basterds, but that’s a very divisive film, or A Single Man or Bright Star or The Last Station…

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Lee Daniels, Precious
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

It seems certain that the Academy will nominate the third female and the second black director in their history–hurray for diversity (sarcasm intended), and Reitman is a lock. Beyond that it’s a crap shoot. The voters seem to love the Coens, and though Eastwood got bupkus last year for Gran Torino or Changeling it’s too soon to write off the Academy love affair with him. Past winners James Cameron and Peter Jackson are on the bubble.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

The last-second inclusion of Crazy Heart clears up a muddled picture–this baby is Bridges’ to lose. Clooney, Firth and Freeman seem set, and I’m hoping Renner squeezes in for the fifth spot, as Daniel Day-Lewis has not earned sterling advance word for Nine.

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

I hope the talk of The Blind Side getting a Best Picture nomination is ludicrous, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it’s box-office haul, as well as that of The Proposal, will earn Bullock a good will nomination. The other four seem certain.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia (or The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Only Waltz is a sure-thing in the most fascinating of the major categories. Tucci has to compete against himself in two vastly different roles. Harrelson gets a bump from the National Board of Review, while I’m going out on a limb for McKay, because the Academy loves performances depicting real people, especially from Hollywood. On the bubble are Anthony Mackie of The Hurt Locker, Christopher Plummer of The Last Station, and Matt Damon of Invictus.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo”Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Mo’Nique’s comments on campaigning for awards should not prevent a nomination–that will be in play when discussing a win. Nine has a ton of prominent women in the cast (five of whom are Oscar winners), but Penelope Cruz seems the most likely nominee from that cast.

Nominations are announced February 2. I’ll have a final slate of predictions a day or two earlier.