2010 Oscar Predictions, Round 2

The Oscar nominations will be announced bright and early Tuesday morning, so it's time to post my last gasp at who will get in and who won't. I've been doing this a long time, in one form or another, and it seems to get easier every year, as there are so many nudnicks on the Web just reiterating the same favorites. I would love for there to be a complete bolt-out-of-the-blue surprise.

I'll stick to the ten categories that they will announce on the live presentation, plus one.

Best Picture:

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

There are eleven films chasing ten spots, and I'm sorry to say I think Winter's Bone will be left out, due to its minuscule box office. However, if it does get in I think it will knock out 127 Hours, which is being seen as an underachiever.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception

I'm removing David O. Russell, who was a DGA nominee, and replacing him with the Coens, who were not, just because.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

I could be persuaded the Duvall is vulnerable, as he hasn't gotten any precursor nods, but I don't see who would step up to replace him. Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine? Javier Bardem for Biutiful? Maybe Mark Wahlberg for The Fighter. But unlikely. Therefore, he stays.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

I'm stubbornly hanging on to the notion that Moore will get Kids a second nod in this category, along with the undeniable Bening. If she doesn't, it will probably be Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine. True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld, in a case of category confusion, could cloud this issue.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

This is the Oscar blogosphere consensus, with only the possibility of Matt Damon in True Grit breaking in. I'm hoping to hear John Hawkes' name for Winter's Bone.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

These are the SAG nominees. Again, Steinfeld category confusion could wreak havoc. Ordinarily a juvenile is always ghettoized to the realm of supporting, but Keisha Castle-Hughes upended precedent a few years ago, so who knows? Interesting that Kunis has been getting the love instead of Barbara Hershey. Maybe that role cuts too close to the bone of many voters. The spoiler is Jacki Weaver for the highly regarded but little-seen Animal Kingdom.

Best Original Screenplay

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone

Best Foreign Language Film

Canada (Incendies)
Denmark (In a Better World)
Mexico (Biutiful)
South Africa (Life, Above All)
Sweden (Simple Simon)

Best Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Two of these are locks, the third is a guessing game. Tangled or even Despicable Me could get in. There seems to be a soft spot for bland, old-fashioned animation mixed with the more inventive.

Best Documentary Feature

Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for "Superman"