The Republican D-List

I read yesterday that the first debate for the Republican nomination for president will be at the Reagan Library on May 2nd. The burning question is, who will be there? As of now there are no major candidates who have officially announced, though there are lots of suspects. It's starting to look like the Republican version of some horrible reality show that only attracts D-listers.

I've been reading articles, mostly from the liberal press, that many Republicans have come to the conclusion that Barack Obama is unbeatable in 2012. That is why some heavy-hitters and up-and-comers, like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, and John Thune, are passing, biding their time for 2016, and recognizing that running in 2012 is a fool's errand. That leaves the field to a large percentage of quixotic crusaders and crackpots, like Herman Cain, the found of Godfather's Pizza (and I believe the only person to officially announce his candidacy), Buddy Roemer, a one-time Louisiana congressman who hasn't held elective office in over twenty years, Rick Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania who once equated homosexuality with bestiality, and Newt Gingrich.

Gingrich is not a fringe candidate, in that he is a well-known name. He has been a factor in Republican politics since early in the Reagan years, and then of course Speaker of the House and now a TV-windbag and prolific author of, among other things, alternate histories. Gingrich seems ready to announce his candidacy, but is there any scenario that would have him as the nominee?

For one thing, Gingrich has values problems. He left one wife while she was dying in a cancer ward, and is an admitted adulterer, which might not be the problem it used to be but considering Gingrich's crusade against Bill Clinton seems like a deal-breaker. Secondly, Gingrich is not a warm and fuzzy person--his negatives would be hard to eradicate, as he comes across like a mean teacher. It would appear his candidacy is simply a way for him to keep his name in the news and sell books.

So, who will the nominee be? Usually the Republican Party plays the game of "Who's Next in Line," which would mean Mitt Romney, who seems a certainty to run. Other names of candidates who would seem to have a chance would be Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, and, of course, Sarah Palin, but the jury is out on whether the last two will even run.

Romney seems like the establishment choice, though he has his obstacles. A notorious flip-flopper and panderer, Romney is also incredibly bland. It's hard to imagine the populace being swept into a passion for voting for him.

It will be fascinating to see what role the Tea Party has, as this is the first presidential election cycle to occur following their crest. A reasonable candidate, like Mitch Daniels, would have a great chance of beating Obama, but his less-than-rabid stance on social issues (and his reluctance to run) would seem to nix his chances. Some think that Pawlenty will be the alternative to the been-there, done-that Romney, but Pawlenty is not much more exciting than Romney.

Democrats can feel good surveying the potential Republican candidates, but there is always the chance that the economy could once again slide, or some foreign misadventure (like Libya) could suddenly drop Obama's approval rating. If that happens, some Republicans may rue that they sat this one out, and the country may end up with a D-lister as president.