Oscar 2011: Best Picture, Director

After the lead acting awards have been given, the suspense will be over tonight. The Best Picture and Best Director awards are dead solid locks.

The favorite for Best Director is Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, a film that has steadily built momentum since it premiered at Cannes in May. This marks the second year in a row that a comparative unknown will win this award. Why am I so sure? Hazanavicius won the DGA award, which is one of the most certain indicators of an Oscar.

The rest of the nominees, an august group, don't stand a chance. If, for some reason, I'm wrong, I'd be at a loss to name the winner. Perhaps Martin Scorsese for Hugo, but that he finally got the nonwinner monkey off his back five years ago there isn't a swell of sentiment behind him. When the awards talk started, I thought that Alexander Payne might have been the winner for The Descendants, but that film has lost whatever steam it might have had.

The other two nominees won't sweat losing, as they won't even be there. Woody Allen, director of Midnight in Paris, and Terrence Malick, for The Tree of Life, are consistent no-shows at award shows. Allen will win for Best Original Screenplay (the first to win that award three times), while Malick is so camera-shy that there appears to be only one photo of him, used over and over again in magazines.

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius
Could win: No one else
Should win: Terrence Malick
Should have been nominated: Bennett Miller, Moneyball


To handicap the Best Picture race, one should eliminate any film that does not have a director nomination, which takes out Moneyball, The Help, War Horse, and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Since 1932, only one film, Driving Miss Daisy, has won a Best Picture Oscar without getting a Best Director nomination. Then, you can eliminate the films that don't have a Screenplay nomination, which knocks out The Tree of Life. The last film to win an Oscar for Best Picture without a screenplay nomination was Titanic. Finally, you can knock out films that don't have a Best Editing nomination, which knocks out Midnight in Paris. The last film to win in that instance was Ordinary People.

The films that are left are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants. Here, look to one of the more reliable matchups in Oscar history: whomever wins Best Director, that film wins Best Picture, and I see no reason to see a split this year. I will admit I'm puzzled by the enthusiasm for The Artist, which is an amusing trifle, but apparently the audacity of making a black and white silent film in this day and age has impressed a number of people. It was a pleasant enough experience, but as the years go by it will be one of those Best Pictures that people look back and say, "WTF?"

Hugo, despite a win for Scorsese at the Golden Globes, has never gained traction during awards season, and, as mentioned, The Descendants was set up to be the favorite, but didn't catch on. If you came from the future and told me that The Artist didn't win, I think the winner might be The Help, due to it being a favorite among actors (it won the SAG award for Best Ensemble). It would set Oscar ninnies back on their heels, though, since it would be the first Best Picture without a Director, Screenplay, or Editing nomination since Grand Hotel.

Will win: The Artist
Could win: The Help
Should win: Midnight in Paris
Should have been nominated: Take Shelter


Here is my complete slate of predictions:


Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin
Best Actress: Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Foreign Language Film: In Darkness
Best Animated Film: Rango
Best Cinematography: The Artist
Best Editing: The Artist
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costume Design: The Artist
Best Song: Real in Rio
Best Musical Score: The Artist
Best Documentary Feature: Paradise Lost 3
Best Documentary Short Subject: God is the Bigger Elvis
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Animated Short Subject: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live Action Short Subject: The Shore
Best Sound Editing: Hugo
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes