Oscar 2014: Best Supporting Actress

"Mommy's going to win an Oscar!"

Three of the four acting categories this year in the Oscar race don't have much suspense. The least suspenseful is Best Supporting Actress, where one person has swept all the precursors.

That is Patricia Arquette, for her role as the mother in the twelve-year long filming of Boyhood. When I saw this film in the summer I could see it was an Oscar-type role. Not only is she good, but she allowed herself to age, naturally. She goes from her early 30s to her mid-40s, and did not hit the gym or get plastic surgery. With the dearth of roles for women past 40, I think this resonates, at least with the acting branch.

If anyone has a chance at an upset (and it would be completely mind-blowing) it would be Laura Dern, for her role as the mother in Wild. Dern is kind of an actor's actor, having worked with everyone and being well-respected in the business. But the role is a brief one, and it won't happen this year.

The other three need not prepare a speech. Emma Stone, as the out-of-rehab daughter of Michael Keaton in Birdman, and Keira Knightley, as the lone female working to crack the Nazi code in The Imitation Game, are both fairly young. Knightley has more experience, and this is her second nomination (the first was for Pride and Prejudice) so she may have the edge for third place. Stone is clearly a major star in the making, and will have many more nominations, so she will have to wait her turn.

Finally, Meryl Streep, with her 19th nomination, has already won three awards. I don't expect her to win a fourth, at least not before she is 80 (Katharine Hepburn did win four). I don't even think she was the best person to nominate in this category from Into the Woods. I would have preferred to see Anna Kendrick here.

Will win: Patricia Arquette
Could win: Laura Dern
Should win: Patricia Arquette
Should have been nominated: Kim Dickens, Gone Girl