The Republican Clown Car

There is trouble in the Republican Party. We are near debate time (actually, we're past it--four years ago they had already started by now) and there's logistical nightmares afoot. There are so many Republican candidates that it's a problem of how to stage debates. There are so many that I've dragged out that reliable metaphor, the clown car.

The first debate is scheduled for Fox News on August 6th. Chuck Todd has identified 18 Republican candidates (it's almost like identifying species of beetle or something). 18! The good people at Fox have decided to cap the number of participants at ten, based on their standing in the polls. This has outraged those left out, understandably, because debates are the easiest and cheapest way to get the public's attention. But there's just no way, goes the thinking, that a stage with 18 people could be handled with any kind of proper structure. The debate would have to go several hours for anyone to say more than a handful of words. And that would be torture, even for Fox News devotees.

These are the candidates Todd notes. Not all of them have announced, so maybe some will come to their senses. These are arranged I believe by Todd's estimation of their candidacy:

Jeb Bush
Scott Walker
Marco Rubio
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Lindsey Graham
Rick Perry
Bobby Jindal
Chris Christie
John Kasich
Donald Trump
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Jim Gilmore
George Pataki
Bob Ehrlich

A few things: is Chris Christie really going to run with all the scandals floating around his large head? George Pataki? His time to run was twenty years ago. Who is Bob Ehrlich? He's the ex-governor of Maryland, but I've never heard of him. John Kasich, current governor of Ohio, seems like a worthy candidate, but is probably running for positioning for 2020 or vice-president. Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia, tried this eight years ago, was around for one debate, and disappeared. Now he probably won't even get one debate. Carly Fiorina drove Hewlett-Packard into the ground--why would anyone think she'd make a good president? She's the token woman, as Carson is the token black (who must be allowed to debate for entertainment purposes. So should Donald Trump).

So we do clearly have tiers here. A later article by Todd shows the top ten in the polls right now:

1. Bush
2. Walker
3. Rubio
4. Cruz
5. Paul
6. Huckabee
7. Carson
8. Christie
9. Perry
10. Trump

Perry, of course, did himself in a a debate last go-round, when he couldn't remember the cabinet departments he'd eliminate.

The notable leave-outs here are Santorum, who actually was the last man standing before Mitt Romney four years ago, and Graham, who is an actual senator (he is also single and just a tad effeminate, so reporters are certainly doing some digging). Fiorina, the only woman, would be left out, as would Kasich, who is the governor of a populous state.

Certainly this field will clear quickly, probably before a single vote is cast. I just can't imagine Pataki or Ehrlich sticking around. Huckabee and Santorum are vying for the Evangelical vote (along with Cruz, who is really angling for the lunatic vote) and one will have to go. Carson's novelty will wear off, as will Trump's. Speaking of Trump, this will only go as far as his ego will take it, because he has the money.

And we all know it's money that drives elections, especially for president. Once these candidates start to rake in contributions, the wheat will separate from the chaff. I see the above six being the serious candidates--Bush, Walker, Rubio, Cruz, Paul, and Huckabee. They will likely have the money for advertising as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina votes. Two of these will go for religious nuts, so, as in 2008, Huckabee may gain an early advantage, while Bush will probably win New Hampshire. The others will have to hope to hang on until home states (Florida should be a pickup for Rubio).

It's all quite interesting, given that the Democratic side is a fait accompli. Which clown will get the nod?