The Hall of Fame: Will Bonds and Clemens Ever Get In?

The Baseball Hall of Fame released their ballot for induction today, and there are numerous interesting questions. There could be quite a few inducted this year (meaning more than two) which has been the trend lately. This, without any of the those stained by PED use being elected (Mark McGwire is off the ballot and was passed over last year by the Eras committee). But Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who everybody thinks but nobody has proved used steroids, have made moves up in the past few years. Will they ever get in?

First, let's talk about who will get in. Of the first-timers on the ballot, the one sure-fire inductee is Chipper Jones, the stalwart third basemen for the great Brave teams of the 1990s. Besides sharing my birthday, April 24th, Jones has inarguable HOF credentials, both in the old stats (468 homers, 2726 hits, .303 batting average) and new (career 85 WAR). Jones probably won't get the elusive unanimous vote, but he'll probably clear 90 percent.

Of the other first timers, there are two who deserve enshrinement but god knows if the writers will enact their unwritten rule on who gets in on the first ballot. Jim Thome has 612 home runs, good for eighth all-time, without any taint of PED use, and a 72.9 WAR. He should be in, and will be in, it's just whether it's this year or not. His Cleveland teammate, Omar Vizquel, should also be in. Perhaps only second to Ozzie Smith as a defensive whiz (and maybe even better) Vizquel also was a very good hitter, with 2877 hits. If they both get in, it will be a banner day for the Indians (both played for multiple teams, but spent the lion's share of their careers in Cleveland).

Other first-timers that probably will be one and done are Chris Carpenter, Johnny Damon, Liván Hernández, Orlando Hudson, Aubrey Huff, Jason Isringhausen, Carlos Lee, Brad Lidge, Kevin Millwood, Jamie Moyer, Scott Rolen, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano. Damon is the one who has a chance to stick around for more years (that is, get more than five percent of the vote). He ended his career with 2769 hits. Had he reached 3000, we might be having a different conversation. He was a reliable player for a long time, but not a HOFer, to me. Jamie Moyer pitched for 25 years and won 269 games, twenty twice, but I don't think anyone thinks he's of the highest level. Also new this year are Andruw Jones, probably the most obscure of any player who has more than 400 home runs, Hideki Matsui, who will not be the first Japanese player inducted (that remains for Ichiro Suzuki, should he ever retire), and Johan Santana, who has the only Mets no-hitter, which may have ruined his arm.

Of the returning players, there are those who linger in a sort of limbo, getting enough votes to stay but not getting close to election. These are guys like Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Larry Walker, and Curt Schilling. Each of these guys has a case--Jeff Kent and Gary Sheffield might have ruined it by playing on too many teams and having a difficult reputation. Schilling, though not the only politically conservative baseball player, has been so obnoxious about it it has certainly cost him votes. I don't think any of these get in this year.

That leaves the guys who I think will get in with Jones. Both Trevor Hoffman, second all-time in saves, and Vladimir Guerrero a great hitter, got more than 70 percent last year, which means they missed by just a few votes. Anyone who was received that many votes has gotten in eventually, and since there isn't a flood of obvious new players this year, they should get the necessary votes. Last year I mentioned that Tim Raines may be the last player to go in with an Expos hat--I may be wrong. Guerrero played eight years for Montreal, and six years for Anaheim. It will be interesting to see which hat he picks. No player has been inducted wearing an Angels cap.

And now, what of Bonds, Clemens, Manny Ramirez, and Sammy Sosa, who are PED guys? Let's look at the numbers. Bonds, baseball's home run king, has gone from 36 to 53 percent in five years, an indication that things are softening for him. Clemens, almost identically, has gone from 37 to 54 percent. Interestingly, Sosa barely comes back; in his five years he has gone down from 12 to 8 percent. Ramirez, who has the numbers to be a lock, got 23 percent in his first year.

It is thought that the Hall reduced the number of years on the BBWAA ballot from fifteen to ten years to get these guys off as quickly as possible. It would be a big embarrassment for them if Bonds and Clemens are inducted, as they might see a mass absence of past Hall of Famers. There are five years to go for Bonds and Clemens, I'm sure Major League Baseball is crossing its fingers. Of course, during that time, Alex Rodriguez will become eligible.

Again, my prediction is that Chipper Jones, Trevor Hoffman, and Vlad Guerrero get into the Hall of Fame this year.