Enter the Sandman

The Baseball Hall of Fame announced its ballot for the vote for next year's class (this is a separate vote than the "Eras" committee that I wrote about some days ago). There are 35 names on the ballot, and let the arguing begin.

There should be no argument about one name, Mariano Rivera, the greatest relief pitcher of all time, by far. Rivera is the all-time saves leader, 51 ahead of the next person, Trevor Hoffman, who got in last year. I have no doubt that Rivera will not get in unanimously. There are knuckleheads among the writers who don't believe in voting for anyone the first time they are eligible, and likely a few that don't believe that a player that played only one inning a game merits induction. They are wrong. Rivera was, among a few others, the key to the Yankees championship run in the late nineties. He was so good that his blown saves (he had two that I remember in the post-season) stand out because they were so rare.

Another person who looks good this year is Edgar Martinez, who would be the first full-time designated hitter to go in the Hall. Like the DH rule or not, it's been part of baseball for 45 years, and you can't just ignore a position because you don't believe in it. In his penultimate year on the ballot, Martinez shot up from 58 to 70 percent, and he needs 75 for induction in this, his last year on the writers' ballot. It would be a shock if he didn't.

Those two are gold, but if someone else gets in it is likely to be from among  group of starting pitchers. Last year Mike Mussina also shot up 12 points, to 63 percent. I think he'll be right on the line of getting in, and he deserves it. He has 270 wins, and the way pitching has changed in the last generation or two, it's going to be rare to see anyone else get that high. I wonder if I'll see another 300 game winner in my lifetime.

More difficult to gauge is Roy Halladay, who is on the ballot for the first time. Halladay, who died just over a year ago in a plane crash, deserves entry. He has almost a .666 winning percentage, with over 200 wins, won Cy Young Awards in both leagues, and has a post-season no-hitter to boot. It is hard to know how the posthumous aspect of this will play into it. Voters could be pushed one way because he's gone, or decide to wait because he's gone. He will get in, probably this year or the next two.

Finally, there's Curt Schilling. He had 51 percent of the vote last year, and no one has jumped from that low to above the threshold in one year. It's not even his highest percentage, and he has gone up and down the past few years. There is no question he was a great pitcher, with a 79 WAR and the hero of three World Series (with different teams). What is no doubt keeping him down is his obnoxious political beliefs. No one should be judged on that, but Schilling is so reprehensible, praising a t-shirt that indicating lynching journalists is a good idea, that there are no doubt writers who won't vote for him because of that. C'est la vie.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the PED bunch, which includes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, and Sammy Sosa. Without the taint of PED use, they would all be in easily. Clemens and Bonds got 57 and 56 percent last year, respectively, but they only went up a few points from the previous year, indicating this is about all the support they can expect to get. Ramirez and Sosa are far further down the list, with 22 and 7 percent, respectively.

Other first-timers that are likely to get some support are Andy Pettitte, who was frequently in the spotlight because of his post-season appearances and seems to be completely forgiven for human growth hormone use, and Todd Helton, who was a terrific hitter but is probably doomed for playing his whole career in Colorado. This appears to have snake bit Larry Walker as well. I wonder what a Rockies player will have to do to be taken seriously by the Hall voters?

Of those returning, I'm interested to see what jump Omar Vizquel makes, if any. He got 37 percent last year as one of the greatest defensive shortstops in history. Fred McGriff is in his last year on the ballot, but he only got 23 percent last year, so he will have to hope for the Eras committee. A lot of so-called experts think Scott Rolen deserves entry, but he only got 10 percent last year. But no matter how low your vote the first time out, there's always hope. He started at 1.1 percent in his first year, and made it by the skin of his teeth in his last year of eligibility.

I think it's going to be Rivera and Martinez, with Mussina right on the bubble, then Halladay.