Seth Moulton
Moulton seems like a long shot, if only because he seems like many of the other candidates who have already gotten a head start on him. He's certainly an attractive candidate--liberal, but served four tours of duty in Iraq. Educated at Harvard, and blandly handsome. But there are a lot of young, somewhat under-qualified white men, like Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg, who have gotten the jump on him. Moulton has only served two terms in Congress.
And that brings up a point--I can't recall an election where more members of the House have run for president. It's a daunting prospect--the last to do it was James Garfield in 1880. There hasn't even been a major party nominee since Garfield (William Jennings Bryan was a former congressman). But this year, Democratic House members are going for the brass ring--we have Moulton, Tim Ryan, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, and Eric Swalwell. O'Rourke is a former House member, his highest held political office.
Between Barack Obama and John Kennedy, the last two sitting senators to be elected president, all of our presidents have been governors or former governors, or vice presidents. No one from either legislative bodies. I suppose it's because governor is an executive branch position, or maybe it's just a quirk. But it's definitely difficult to win the presidency while serving in congress. This shibboleth is so strongly observed that Bob Dole quit the Senate to concentrate on the presidential run in 1996.
I don't think any of the House members running have much chance this year. Of the five, perhaps Gabbard has the chance to break through, because she has already secured a position at the debates. If the other four can not, they may have to drop out before Iowa. O'Rourke, technically a former congressman, will assuredly be part of the debate, but I think a lot of his energy has been sapped by Buttigieg.
And still, we await Joe Biden. It ought to be fun, and interesting.
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