The 92nd Academy Awards: Best Actress Preview

Best Actress can be more easily predicted than most Oscar categories, because the pickings are slimmer. It also makes room for films that are not box office smashes, or foreign films. Right now, I think there are three actresses who are locks for nominations. I'll start with two that aren't.

Awkwafina, The Farewell. Here's a disheartening statistic: the number of Asian performers nominated for Best Actress is exactly one--Merle Oberon, in 1935. And she tried to hide her ancestry (she was part East Indian and had some Maori as well). So I hope Awkwafina gets nominated for The Farewell, a small indie that got great reviews but little box office. She is a comedian by trade, and sometimes the transition from one type of performance to another garners respect by other actors.

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet. There are a lot of intangibles in favor of Erivo, who plays American icon Harriet Tubman, though the movie is only getting so-so reviews. There had been some talk of more than one African-American nominee (that's never happened in this category) but after the movies in question are being tepidly received, there might not be any.

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story. Lock number one is Johansson, an actress who began her career with accolades (she won a BAFTA award for Lost In Translation, and received critics' awards for that film and Ghost World) but she has since become a performer known for action films. For her appearances as Black Widow, she has earned the distinction of having the highest box office receipts of any actress in history. This would be her first nomination, and those who have seen it are heaping praise.

Charlize Theron, Bombshell. Lock number two is Theron, as Megyn Kelly in the Fox News drama Bombshell. Theron won this award sixteen years ago, and has continued to give great performances, in both dramas (North Country, her other nomination) and action films (I thought she was great in Mad Max: Fury Road). Bombshell is being well-received in advance word, and may get all three of its actresses (including Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie) nominated.

Renee Zellweger, Judy. Lock number three and the front-runner is Zellweger as Judy Garland. Not only is she terrific (and does her own singing) but Zellweger's personal story, coming back after a half-decade layoff and the battering she took on social media over a supposed face-lift, puts her in the driver's seat. She has won before, in the Supporting category for Cold Mountain. She should expect that Oscar to have a brother.

Also possible: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women; Alfre Woodard, Clemency; Lupita Nyong'o, Us; Mary Kay Place, Diane; and one can never count out Meryl Streep, The Laundromat.