The 92nd Academy Awards: Best Director, Picture

Since the Academy changed the voting for Best Picture to a preferential ballot, predicting the award has been fraught with peril. This is a good thing, because the fait accomplis of previous years can not be taken for granted, but it also a bad thing, because the award is now designed to go to a consensus, and therefore safe, choice (such as Green Book last year).

In the fall, it the Best Picture race appeared to be between Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and The Irishman. But while they were battling it out on the rail, 1917 came from the outside. The first inkling was the Golden Globe for Best Drama, which seemed to be a surprise then. Since then it has won the PGA, the BAFTA, and Sam Mendes won the DGA award, which is the clearest belwether of any of the precursors.

Normally when handicapping the Best Picture race we look at the other nominations it receives: to win, it should have a nomination for Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Editing. That Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was not nominated for Best Editing was the first sign it was in trouble. The only films that check all boxes are The Irishman, Parasite, and Joker. But The Irishman seems to be strung up on the Netflix problem--the Academy as a whole does not seem ready to bestow a Best Picture on a movie that is made for television. And Joker, while it also had the most nominations of any film, is probably a bit too polarizing, and despite that it's not a really a comic book movie, it is based around a familiar comic book character.

As for Parasite, it is in much the same situation Roma was in last year--a strong possibility that the first ever foreign language film could win Best Picture. What I think kept Roma from winning last year, in addition to being a Netflix film, which Parasite is not, is that voters can check it off in the Best International Feature category. To vote for it in two "best" picture categories may be seem excessive. But it certainly could surprise.

1917 was not nominated for Best Editing. The last film to win Best Picture without getting an editing nod was Birdman. But, like Birdman, 1917 is structured to appear to be a continuous shot. Apparently the editing branch doesn't like that.

The other films in the field are missing one of the key elements. Ford v Ferrari doesn't have a writing or a directing nomination; Little Women, Marriage Story, and Jojo Rabbit don't have a directing nomination. There is also a lot of people who don't like these films for one reason or another--Little Women is too confusing, Marriage Story is about privileged white people and their first world problems, and Jojo Rabbit is a comedy about Hitler. Ford v Ferrari, being essentially about car racing, may seem a little light.

In the final analysis, I expect 1917 to win Best Picture and Sam Mendes to win Best Director. He won twenty years ago for American Beauty, and if he wins, of all directors who have won more than one Oscar, his would be farthest spaced apart. If another director wins, it would probably be Quentin Tarantino, who has never won this award before (he's won twice for screenwriting). Scorsese finally won a few years ago for The Departed, so I don't believe the Academy thinks it owes him anything. Bong Joon-ho, for Parasite, figures to win Best International Feature and perhaps Best Original Screenplay, so probably won't win here. Todd Phillips, for Joker, can be happy to be there.

Best Director
Will win: Mendes
Might win: Tarantino
Should win: Tarantino
Should have been nominated: Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Best Picture: Will win: 1917
Might Win: Parasite
Should Win: Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Should have been nominated: Nothing I saw this year is better than this group

The complete picks:

Best Picture:1917
Best Director: Sam Mendes
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress: Renee Zelwegger
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite 
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Best International Feature Film: Parasite 
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 4
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design: Little Women 
Best Song: Rocketman 
Best Musical Score: Joker 
Best Documentary Feature: American Factory
Best Documentary Short Subject: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone 
Best Makeup and Hairstyles: Bombshell
Best Animated Short Subject: Hair Love
Best Live Action Short Subject: The Neighbor’s Window
Best Sound Editing:1917 
Best Sound Mixing: 1917 
Best Visual Effects: The Lion King