It's Awards Season!

The critics' awards and Golden Globe nominations will be revealed this week, so it's a good time to jot down my first pass at predicting the Oscar nominations for the major categories. With so many hyenas on the 'Net offering their opinions, it's hard to know what is an original idea and what is just parroting someone else predictions, but I'll contribute to the morass anyway.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road

Notes: No Dark Knight, just don't see it happening. The sixth movie here is The Reader. Don't have a good feel for what the eventual winner will be, although the whole Prop 8 mess, residual bad feelings about Brokeback Mountain and the ever-changing membership of the Academy (skewing younger) may give Milk a big push.

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Notes: As picture and director rarely match up, I'm going with Ron Howard to get screwed, as there is precedent for it.

BEST ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, Che
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Notes: Fascinating race. If Sean Penn had not won before I think he'd be the overwhelming favorite to win, and he might just win anyway.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (or The Reader)

Notes: Will Winslet's two films cancel each other out for her? Hard to know at this point which one is the stronger performance. If she is nominated she may be the favorite due to her many nominations without a win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Notes: Ledger's win here is the easiest call at this point. Question over who will be nominated from Milk: Brolin or Franco (or both?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

Notes: Lots of contenders here; in the sixth slot is Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

I'll have a full slate of predictions up just before the nominations are announced on January 22nd.