The Hillary Problem

As the long 2008 presidential race continues, Hillary Clinton has made some kind of step toward announcing a run (the first step seems to be forming an "exploratory" committee--I think for her, she will explore the mountain of money she has raised and decide it's a good idea). Now, I think she is a capable, intelligent woman who would make a fine president, but I don't want her to run and I will not support her during the primaries. Why? Because it's hard to imagine how she could win in November.

I am a liberal, but I am also a loyal Democrat, unlike some liberals (such as the ones who decided there was no difference between Bush and Gore, and instead voted for Ralph Nader, which is why we are in the mess we are in now). The Democrats have one of the best chances they will have ever have to take the White House, given the results of the mid-term elections. Voters in traditional Republican areas are getting used to voting Democrat, and have clearly had it with the current occupant. He can not run again (thank you, Constitution!) but he has done a nice job of tainting his entire party with his stench, so a Democrat can try to tie whoever the nominee is to Bush's dismal record.

So why would the Democrats nominate one of the most polarizing figures in all of American politics? She has a fifty percent dislike rating, and that's a passionate dislike. I think people would come out of the woodwork to vote against her, off-setting her ardent admirers. Bill, while still loved by many, is also a pariah in many walks of life, and there are millions who don't want to see him resurface. Also, I haven't been crazy about some of her positions. She holds a finger to the wind on many issues, including Iraq. Also, let's face it, she's not very cuddly. The American voters have a strange fixation on the affability of their candidates. Bush, it is said, beat Kerry because more people would rather have a beer with him. Well, maybe this time people will vote for a president who can actually fix things, but that may be naively optimistic.

If I had my druthers, I'd like to see a Gore/Obama ticket. I will admit, though, that Gore brings a lot of the same baggage, so I'm more than willing to take a flyer on a fresh face who isn't despised by huge portions of the population. Right now Obama seems to be the flavor of the month, could it last?

Many seem to be resigned to Hillary taking the nomination as a fait accompli, because of her war chest and the power she wields. But a cursory look at the history of the Democratic nominating process will show that front-runners don't fare well. Unlike the Republicans, who take an orderly, "it's my turn" approach, (McCain, absent a "macaca" moment, should be the GOP nominee) Democratic politics are full of upheavals. No matter how much money she has, people will actually have to vote for her in the primaries. I humbly suggest they do not.