Oscar Predictions, Round 1
Before the critics awards and Golden Globe nominations either clarify or muddy the Oscar nomination picture, here are my picks for the major categories. I'll chime in again with predictions for all categories sometime in January.
PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
I'm least sure about Babel because of it's art-house pretentions. But what would replace it? Flags of Our Fathers? World Trade Center? Or something on the horizon, like Notes on a Scandal or The Painted Veil? The other four seem pretty safe to me.
DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Usually doesn't match up 100 percent with picture, though it did last year. The co-directors of Sunshine seem the easiest to drop, with Almodovar taking that spot.
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
A weak category this year, and ripe for a surprise. O'Toole may be seriously ill, which further complicates things.
ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Winslet is vulnerable, due to the fact that the film has been out for months but still hasn't gotten a wide release. Annette Bening for Running With Scissors is a possibility, as is Beyonce if Dreamgirls goes wild.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Pretty sure about this group. Interesting that it would have more star power than the lead category.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Emma Thompson, Stranger Than Fiction
Adriana Barraza from Babel also a strong possibility. I put Kikuchi in there because she plays handicapped.
PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
I'm least sure about Babel because of it's art-house pretentions. But what would replace it? Flags of Our Fathers? World Trade Center? Or something on the horizon, like Notes on a Scandal or The Painted Veil? The other four seem pretty safe to me.
DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Usually doesn't match up 100 percent with picture, though it did last year. The co-directors of Sunshine seem the easiest to drop, with Almodovar taking that spot.
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
A weak category this year, and ripe for a surprise. O'Toole may be seriously ill, which further complicates things.
ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Winslet is vulnerable, due to the fact that the film has been out for months but still hasn't gotten a wide release. Annette Bening for Running With Scissors is a possibility, as is Beyonce if Dreamgirls goes wild.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Pretty sure about this group. Interesting that it would have more star power than the lead category.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Emma Thompson, Stranger Than Fiction
Adriana Barraza from Babel also a strong possibility. I put Kikuchi in there because she plays handicapped.
The fifth slot in Best Picture may well go to Letters from Iwo Jima, which is Clint Eastwood's companion film to Flags of Our Fathers. It is the story of the battle from the Japanese point of view. Having two pictures by the same director on the same subject is pretty much unprecedented in Oscar prognositication. Letters won the National Board of Review's top honor, which is marginally indicative. One problem--Letters is in Japanese. No film in a tongue other than English has ever won Best Picture.
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