Oscar Forecast: Best Actress

As the leaves begin to turn it's time to look into Oscar's crystal ball and speculate, sometimes wildly and hopelessly inaccurately, on the favorites for taking home the naked little gold man. A few weeks ago I took a look at the playing field for Best Picture, and that's already changed some, as some films come out and underwhelm, while others come out of nowhere to high acclaim.

Best Actress is generally fairly easy to handicap, due to the scarcity of genuine contenders, which hasn't changed much in the 80-year history of the award. Although it is imprudent to use the word "lock" at this time of year, I think there are a few safe bets. Marion Cotillard, who played French songbird and drug addict Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose, would seem to be the safest, even though she is in a foreign-language picture (they always seem to keep room at the table for at least one of these). That the woman who looks like this (she's pictured here) could transform herself into the gnomish Piaf may be all that she needs to impress the nominating committee.

Another safe bet is Julie Christie, as a sufferer of Alzheimer's in Away From Her. This despite the early release of the picture, and that it's a small Canadian film. Christie has been nominated three times before, and won way back in 1965 for Darling. She would nab the "esteemed older actress who still looks great" slot, as well earning points for playing someone with a debilitating illness (and yet still looking great).

On the next tier we have Keira Knightley in Atonement, which has built up a head of steam with great early reviews. If Atonement gets a passel of nominations, expect Knightley, who would nab her second nomination at only 22 years of age, to get swept along for the ride. Also speaking of youngsters, the name Ellen Page has been tossed into the ring for her role as a pregnant teen in Juno, which would seem to be the indie that sits at the grownup table. Page would be the "who?" nominee, which happens with some regularity.

As for the fifth spot, these are the candidates: my bet would be on Angelina Jolie, for A Mighty Heart. Some have dismissed her chances because the film came and went with barely a whisper, but box office is pretty meaningless when it comes to Best Actress (I don't think Blue Sky, which earned Jessica Lange a win in 1994, made even a million dollars). Personality can rule the day, and Jolie did the wig and makeup thing while playing a deadly serious role after kidding around with Tomb Raider and Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Also in the running are Laura Linney for The Savages, who seems to be a placeholder until people actually see the film, Halle Berry for Things We Lost in the Fire, and Jodie Foster for The Brave One, but I'm dubious about her because this film was designed as a box office winner and it has underperformed, as well as being pretty much a routine action film.

Finally there is Cate Blanchett, who seems to be inheriting the mantle that Meryl Streep has occupied for years. No matter what film she is in, Oscar geeks seem to think she will get a nomination. This year she is in two films, Elizabeth: The Golden Age and I'm Not There, the avant-garde Bob Dylan biography. I'm guessing the latter will keep her in play for Supporting Actress, but the former has received some pretty scathing reviews. I think she gets nominated only if some of the above fall by the way side. Of course, Streep herself is in several films this year, as well, most notably in Lions for Lambs.

If Jackrabbit Slim were omnipotent, Keri Russell from Waitress would get nominated, but sadly, this is not the case.