Wake Me When It's Over

I'm reluctant to write anything about the election this week, because I've been trying to avoid thinking about it. It's just a mess (at least on the Democratic side). Hillary Clinton did well in three out of the four contested states on Tuesday (it's unclear whether she actually "won" Texas), but in the terms of delegate count, she really didn't accomplish much. The media, though, in search of story, declared that she now had "momentum."

These seem to be the facts: Unless she wins something like ninety percent of the vote in the remaining 12 contests, she will not overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count. If he doesn't win seventy-five percent, he will not go over the top. That will leave it to superdelegates, who will be pulled like taffy. Should they vote the way their state went? Or to the overall delegate leader?

And that leaves the mess that is Michigan and Florida. Both states held primaries that don't count because they violated party rules on the date of said primaries (and this was backed up by a court decision, which said the party can make any rules that it likes). Clinton won both states handily, because Obama did not campaign in Florida, and was not even on the ballot in Michigan. Now she wants the delegates to count, which is one of the most disingenuous things to come out of a politician's mouth in a long time. Can she really say something like that, when she knows that if Obama had won those states she'd be arguing the exact opposite? She's a typical politician to the core. At least Obama is saying he's open to whatever the DNC decides.

What should they do? It seems harsh to penalize the voters of those states for the folly of their Democratic committees. A re-vote seems the fairest solution, but those things cost a lot of money. Caucuses are far less, and Clinton doesn't want those, because she doesn't fare well in them (and, to be fair, that's changing the rules as much as moving the dates up). It seems to me that the DNC, to avoid an even nastier fight than, will have to pony up the dough to redo the primaries, and schedule it at a date when full campaigning and advertising time will be available.

I'm also dispirited because it seems like negative campaigning has once again worked. Clinton's ads about answering the phone at 3 AM are disingenuous. Did she ever have to deal with a national security issue as First Lady? Just because she slept in the same bed with a president doesn't mean she has the same experience as one. Obama seems to be stunned by the vitriol, and now has to fight back, although it seems as if it's not in his nature. I think he can fight back, though, while trying to maintain the high road.

What does seem certain is that when the convention in Denver rolls around in August no candidate will have enough pledged delegates to win. If the superdelegates split, it may take more than one ballot to decide the nominee, which hasn't happened since 1952. Al Gore, anyone?