Could It Finally Be Over?

During the week leading up to this week's Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton compared herself to Eight Bells, the filly that was to run in the upcoming Kentucky Derby. Well, as the sporting world now sadly knows, Eight Bells finished second and then broke both of her front ankles, forcing doctors to euthanize her right on track. Clinton hasn't been put down in the equine sense, but the comparison may be apt, because after eking out a win in Indiana and losing North Carolina handily, her candidacy is all but over. Barack Obama, barring videotape evidence of him having sexual congress with children or animals, will be the nominee for President.

I was out on Tuesday night and did not put on the news when I got home, instead finding out the result on Wednesday morning. I've been in hibernation, so disgusted by the course of this campaign that it's made me sick to my stomach to watch it. But when the smoke clears and the news is good (which to me equals Obama victories) I can come out of my self-imposed cave, blinking my eyes, faced turned to the sunlight.

Obama has survived a radical pastor, not wearing a flag lapel-pin, and bowling a 37. He has endured a mountain of trivia, such as somehow being paired with a member of the Weather Underground, who committed crimes when Obama was eight years old. At times he seemed discouraged, and with good reason, as he tried to remain above the fray and actually speak to issues (he did occasionally vent, but I thought with good humor, such as mocking Clinton's ludicrous cozying up to gun-owners by wondering whether she was Annie Oakley).

Clinton, for her part, has done damage to herself in this pursuit of the presidency. She has spoken of "obliterating" Iran, suggested that black people are not hard-working, and in a craven pandering move, pushed for a gas tax holiday despite its condemnation by economists. "I don't put stock in economists," she said, a statement that comes close to saying "facts are stupid things." I suspect she knows deep down that it's over, but in a cracked sense of pride will ride out the primary season, which ends on June 3rd, and then throw in the towel.

What next for Obama? Well, he'll have to steel himself. Whatever the Clintons threw at him, it will be far worse from the dirty-trick squad of the G.O.P. The Wright controversy won't be allowed to die, and there will be whispers about Obama's fictional Muslim faith. We may come to wonder if "liberal" is part of his name, i.e., "liberal Barack Obama." What Obama needs to do, and it's never too early, is go on the offensive. Start to define John McCain, now. If McCain brings up Wright, Obama should bring up John Hagee or Ron Parsley. Hammer away at McCain's statement about 100 more years in Iran, at his recent statement that he likes Bush's judicial appointments, and for all the blather about the straight-talk express, McCain has a history of slippery ethics and will basically be a third term of George W. Bush.

Obama will also be pondering a running mate. The possibilities come in various categories:

The Vanquished: John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, or Hillary herself. Edwards has pussy-footed about an endorsement, and has the stench of the Kerry loss in '04--pass. Richardson has in impressive resume, and is Latino, but not a very dynamic campaigner. Possibly. Dodd, no way.

As for Hillary, there will be a lot of talk about this until the convention. I don't see it happening. Why would Obama want to hitch his wagon to that kind of headache? For one, she and Bill overshadow him. She has plenty of negative baggage, and a man can't be expected to be that magnanimous after the beating he's taken.

Women: If Obama passes on Clinton, he may want to take a woman to mollify the female vote. There aren't any prominent Democratic women who have foreign policy experience (Madeline Albright isn't native-born), but there a number of governors and senators in the mix--Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas, Jeannette Napolitano of Arizona, Claire McCaskill, Missouri.

The Olive Branch: A way of making peace with the Clinton campaign without offering her the number-two spot would be offering it to one of her supporters--Ted Strickland of Ohio, Evan Bayh of Indiana, General Wesley Clark.

Southern White Men: To gather the white working class voters (or the "hard-working people", as Clinton describes them), Obama could turn to men like Sam Nunn of Georgia, Jim Webb or Tim Kaine of Virginia, David Boren of Oklahoma, Bill Nelson of Florida.

I'm sure that whoever the choice is it will be the result of a well-reasoned process, and by that time Hillary will fully supporting the nominee.