Who Will It Be?

The political press is in a tizzy, and I kind of am, too, waiting for Barack Obama to name his running mate for the November election.

The selection of the vice-president is charmingly undemocratic, as it remains in the hands of one person (and his advisers) and is part of an elaborate game of addressing weaknesses in experience, geography, and temperament. It's also, for a person who is not president, their first major presidential-level decision. The party conventions do ratify the selection, but that is a fait accompli. I don't believe any VP nomination has ever been voted down. In one instance, in 1956, Adlai Stevenson threw open the nomination to the Democratic delegates, and they selected Estes Kefauver (John F. Kennedy finished second). Of course Obama would never do that, because Hillary Clinton would probably get it.

So who will he choose? The pundits seem to have focused on three names, with a few more as outside possibilities. The big three are Senators Joe Biden of Delaware and Evan Bayh of Indiana, and governor of Virginia Tim Kaine. All have pluses and minuses, and 'tis a pity the best of the three couldn't be rolled into one candidate.

The hot money is now on Biden, after his quick trip to war-torn Georgia. A senior lion in the Senate (he's been there since 1973), Biden has extensive foreign policy experience as the sometime chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. He can be a gifted public speaker, when he's not putting his foot in his mouth, which he's wont to do. Also, his candidacy for president in 1988 was derailed by charges of plagiarism, but that seems to be a non-issue now, but I imagine they will be resurrected should he be the pick.

Evan Bayh is the safe, bland choice. Biden's Delaware is a likely blue state, but if Obama could use Bayh to get Indiana it would be a big boost. Bayh has experience as both a senator and a governor, including a stint on the Intelligence committee. However, he may be too centrist for the firebrands of the party, particularly on his support for the Iraq war (Biden opposed the war, but during his brief run for president this year he did not support an immediate withdrawal of troops). Neither Bayh or Biden signify any kind of change, either, as they are firmly in the Washington establishment.

That brings me to Tim Kaine, who has been governor of Virginia for three years. Before that he was mayor of Richmond, so he certainly doesn't help Obama on the inexperience charge. Kaine is also very religious, and would be a rather obvious fob to religious voters. I don't know much about his views on anything. Frankly, I think this would be a bad choice, as Obama is still pretty much an unknown to voters, they don't need another one to get acquainted with.

In the second tier of outside chances are Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, and senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Jack Reed of Rhode Island. Sebelius also lacks international experience, and if Obama selects a woman not named Hillary Clinton there may be hell to pay. Dodd and Richardson would be solid picks, even if they are kind of stiff on TV. Don't know much about Reed--he doesn't offer anything geographically.

The choice will probably be made by Friday. McCain will then likely make his choice on Friday the 29th, the day after the Democratic convention, in an attempt to squelch whatever buzz Obama has received from it.