Ten Little Indians, G.O.P. Style

I haven't talked politics for a while, so I'll catch up by taking a look at what's going on with the putative field of Republican presidential candidates. Two candidacies have gone up in flames due to sexual indiscretions, while another is possibly done or maybe not, depending on just how stupid Republican voters can be. In some ways this winnowing resembles the Agatha Christie novel Ten Little Indians (later retitled a more politically correct And Then There Were None), in which ten people guilty of some kind of crime are stranded on an island and murdered off, one by one.

The first to go was John Ensign, veterinarian and senator from Nevada. Mr. Ensign admitted to having an affair with a staffer, and since he got it out there and apologized, it seemed like he wouldn't lose his career. Ensign had made trips to Iowa, so perhaps he thought about a presidential run, but he could kiss that goodbye. Nevada can be very forgiving (the mayor of Las Vegas is a mob lawyer who represented Tony "the Ant" Spilotro, the basis for the Joe Pesci character in Casin0), so Ensign seemed likely to hang on to his senate seat, even if dreams of the White House went up in smoke.

But, not surprisingly, there was more to the story. Ensign's wealthy parents gave $96,000 to the mistress and her family. They say it was a gift, but anyone with sense would call it a bribe. And then came the bizarre story of how Ensign's colleagues, who are also members of a shadowy Washington religious cult called "the Family", tried to get Ensign to end his affair by forcing him to write a break-up letter and then physically taking him to a Fedex station to send it. One of those colleagues is Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who won't say anything more about it because he cites physician confidentiality, which is interesting because Coburn is an obstetrician. Signs point to Ensign resigning soon.

Not to be outdone, South Carolina governor Mark Sanford, who is also connected to "the Family" (don't they realize that Charles Manson has already used that name for a wacky cult?) made news, starting with his disappearance. The first explanation was that he was walking "hiking the Appalachian trail," but that turned out to be a bald-faced lie. He was, of course, in Argentina nailing his mistress. Sanford admitted his indiscretion, and then went the extra mile for late-night comedians everywhere for declaring his Argentine wildcat his "soul-mate," even while he said he was going to try to "fall back in love" with his wife. Why she hasn't kicked him to the curb is a mystery. It seems Sanford will ride out the rest of his term, which expires in 2010, and then presumably will disappear from public life for good. His legacy will be adding "hiking the Appalachian Trail" to the language as a euphemism for adultery.

What do Ensign and Sanford both have in common, other than a casual regard for their wedding vows? They both vociferously argued for the impeachment of Bill Clinton. They also both oppose same-sex marriage because it is a threat to the sanctity of traditional marriage. Maybe it was all this gay marriage that destroyed the Ensign and Sanford marriages.

The third candidate to possibly commit political suicide was Sarah Palin, who stunned the political world the day before Independence Day by announcing that not only would she not run for re-election, but that she was resigning the office after spending only two and a half years of her four-year term. The first reaction, and pretty much the one-hundredth reaction is "What is she thinking?" She has since provided late-night comedians, who are fat and happy these days, with some bizarre statements while wearing fishing waders. She's not a quitter, she's a fighter, she says, even though what she is doing is the definition of quitting.

"Crazy like a fox," some of the conservative pundits/cheerleaders are saying. She can put together a run for the presidency without being tied down to the drudgery of the state house in Juneau, and perhaps more tantalizingly, she's free to earn money making speeches or getting a gig on Fox News (although I liked comedian Julia Sweeney's idea--that she replace Elizabeth Hasselbeck on The View during her pregnancy leave).

It's certainly a risky move, though. Palin is popular among Republicans, but if she thinks she took a beating during her stint as John McCain's henchwoman, she's in for a whole new world of scrutiny during a run for president. How many times will wags ask if she will actually serve all four years of a presidential term? Many bring up the return from the political dead by Richard Nixon, who was also perceived as a lightweight. But Nixon, despite his negatives, was a serious politician, while Palin, every time she opens her mouth, shows that she is not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

If I were a Republican, I would be looking among the many young, attractive politicians out there who can actually conduct an interview without making blunders. Palin may be a celebrity now, but she's got so many negatives that a potential Obama-Palin contest would look like a bloodbath.

Of course, this schadenfreude can backfire. If the economy keeps going south, Obama could lose to anyone. But this summer has been a lot of fun for watching the Republicans being picked off, one by one. Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney--watch out!