Oscar 2010 Forecast: Best Actor

When looking at this year's race for Best Actor, the pieces have fallen into place quite nicely, and it seems fairly easy to imagine that three or four candidates are close to being locks, and that there isn't a big pool to choose from beyond that. It's very much like a few years ago, when Ryan Gosling snuck in for Half Nelson, which shocked Nikki Finke even though half the world had predicted he would be nominated.

Here are my picks for the five, in alphabetical order:

Javier Bardem: Biutiful: Bardem seems to be admired by the Academy, and even though this is a foreign language film its gotten a lot of buzz for his performance, even if the film has divided opinion.

Robert Duvall, Get Low: The film didn't make that much of a splash, and Duvall didn't exactly edge into new frontiers as an actor, but he's gotten into that stage of veneration that wearing a bushy beard and doing that hillbilly accent should get him into the chase.

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network: Not the usual type of nominee, in that he's the almost hollow center of a swirling film, much like John Lone in The Last Emperor. But Eisenberg does have a number of scenes that call for both a verbal dexterity and a huge emotional response. With the hubbub the film has created (it's a lock for a Best Pic nomination), I think Eisenberg is in.

Colin Firth, The King's Speech: The early favorite to win. He plays a real person--beloved to anglophiles, which would seem to be legion in the Academy, and one who has a speech defect. And Firth is an actor who seems to be at the crest of his talents.

James Franco, 127 Hours: Would seem to be a film that is made for a Best Actor nomination--one man show, man against nature. Franco is a different kind of actor--one who does soap operas for fun, takes classes at Columbia, and just published fiction in Esquire. I think it's his time.

If not them, then who?

Jeff Bridges, True Grit--The most obvious of those I'm leaving out, but I do that based on numbers. It's incredibly rare for an actor to get a nomination for playing a part that has already won an Oscar: De Niro as Vito Corleone is the only one I can think of. But if the movie has the goods he could break precedent.

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine--movie's supposed to be a downer, but so was Half Nelson.

Michael Douglas, Solitary Man or Wall Street 2--Hate to say this, but his health could be a factor. And I think he deserves a nomination for Solitary Man, even if no one else saw it.

Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Sean Penn, Fair Game--I don't know if his role is award-worthy, but he's an Academy darling. He got nominated for Sweet and Lowdown and I Am Sam.