91st Oscars Preview: Best Picture

Ryan Gosling in  "First Man"

Yes, it's that time of year, time for Oscar nerds to start thinking about the upcoming fall season and what movies will be considered for Best Picture. And this year will have an interesting wrinkle, as the new "Achievement in Popular Film" award, which will probably be dubbed the "Popcorn Award," will debut. Will it ghettoize blockbusters like Black Panther and stack Best Picture with indies and costume dramas, or will voters nominate such films in both categories?

We don't know who will be voting for Best Popular Film yet, or what the criteria will be, so it's real guess-work here. But predicting Best Picture nominees has become harder, as the initiative to get more diverse voters has made for two straight winners that were on nobody's radar at this time of year: Moonlight and The Shape of Water.

So here are my ridiculously early guesses, in alphabetical order. My usual track record is five of these will get nominated and a couple will die quick and silent deaths.


Beautiful Boy (Felix Van Groeningen) A drama about a father, Steve Carell, dealing with his teenage son's (Timothee Chalamet) meth addiction. Don't know any more about it than that, but it has all the ingredients of something the Academy would like.

BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee). Will this be the year that Lee finally gets nominated for Best Director, and gets a Best Picture nod? He did get an honorary Oscar a few years ago, but this is one of his best films, and in many ways one of his most traditional: a police procedural. It also fits the zeitgeist and trolls Donald Trump, which can't hurt in Hollywood.

Black Panther (Ryan Coogler). I think this will break through and be the first comic book film nominated for Best Picture. It already is the slam-dunk winner of the Best Popular film, but it's movies like this that the Academy expanded the nominations to ten for in the first place. It was such a social landmark, and a pretty good flick, too.

Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton) The second film this year to be about gay conversion therapy (the other is The Miseducation of Cameron Post), but this one has more star power, with Russell Crowe and Nicole Kidman as parents of a boy sent to gay conversion therapy. Another film that fits the zeitgeist of the time. I'm sure Mike Pence will want to see it.

The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) This sounds like a surprisingly mainstream topic for Lanthimos: a historical costume drama about the court of Queen Anne (with Elizabeth I getting so many films, it's about time Anne got some recognition). It stars Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone as ladies of court vying for Anne's attention. Fun fact: Anne had seventeen pregnancies, but had no heirs when she died.

First Man (Damien Chazelle) The early front runner after raves from Venice, plus a stupid controversy: they don't show the American flag enough! It is the story of Apollo 11 and the first man on the moon, Neil Armstrong, played by Ryan Gosling. If it's nominated for Best Picture, Chazelle will be the first director to have his first three films nominated for a Best Picture Oscar. Of course, it's easier now with up to ten nominees. so it's kind of like post-season records in baseball.

The Front Runner (Jason Reitman) Hugh Jackman as Gary Hart, whose 1988 presidential campaign went up in smoke after being caught in a sex scandal. It's interesting historically because it's the first time that reporters actually reported on a candidate's peccadilloes--before that, they kept them under the rug (they all knew Kennedy was a pussy hound). From the trailer, seems like J.K. Simmons, as Hart's campaign manager, is in the running for a Best Supporting Actor nod.

If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins). Jenkins' follow up to Moonlight, this is an adaptation of a James Baldwin novel. I've never read the book--maybe I should before I see the movie--but given the more diverse Academy this seems like a natural, even with a largely unknown cast (just like Moonlight).

Mary Queen of Scots (Josie Rourke) Speaking of Queen Elizabeth, this is a remake of an oft-told tale, the rivalry between the Virgin Queen and her cousin, Mary. With Saorsie Ronan as Mary and Margot Robbie as Elizabeth. What all these films get wrong is that Mary and Elizabeth never actually met. Fun fact: I wrote a paper on this subject for my high school European history class. I figure one of the two British royalty films will be good enough to get nominated.

The Wife (Björn Runge)  This hasn't made it to the suburbs yet, so I don't know if it's Best Picture material, but I'll tell you right now that Glenn Close will win the Oscar for Best Actress. Maybe this film, about the wife of a Nobel Prize winner, will ride her coattails. Fun fact: There will be no Nobel Prize for Literature this year, because of a sex scandal among the judges (those frisky Scandinavians), but there will be two next year.