The Top Tier

Guess what? It's only 200 days until the Iowa caucuses. So it's getting close to the day when Democrats will actually cast votes for the nominee for president, and we can done with the tea leaf reading.

I'm not Nate Silver, and have no statistical models in front of me, but it seems to me that there's about a ninety-nine percent chance that the nominee will be one of the candidates pictured at right: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Bernie Sanders. They are the top tier, judging by both preliminary polls, fund-raising, and performance in the first debate. On the next tier are Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, and maybe Amy Klobuchar, who could be one great debate appearance from breaking through. I think the rest of the cast of the thousands are dead in the water, particularly Beto O'Rourke, who started like a house on fire but has fizzled out, mostly to the perception that he is empty of ideas, a Kennedy manque.

Biden still leads the polls, but in my gut I feel he will not be the nominee. He looked old in the debate, he does not represent the future of the party, and I just don't understand how anyone could get excited about his candidacy. He still talks about "reaching across the aisle," when that has been shown to be foolish. Warren has sucked up a lot of Sanders' progressive support, while avoiding calling herself a socialist ("I'm a capitalist to my bones," she says). Harris increased her chances with her debate performance, calling Biden on his dubious votes from long ago (that's what happens when you're a senator for thirty-plus years), all the while trying to tamp down her record as a prosecutor, when she tried to put people in jail for truancy from school.

I've pretty much decided on Warren, and right now I'm counting on voting for her in the Nevada caucus, which I found out I could do by phone, which makes me happy. I'd be tickled pink by a Warren/Harris ticket, doubling down on the women vote, but also putting a person of color on the ticket and making the election exciting. People need to be spurred to vote, and I don't think Biden will garner a huge turnout like Warren will.

In the "one step up, two steps back" area, we've had one candidate drop out: Eric Swalwell, who did little but say "pass the torch" in the debate, and he apparently has passed it. But, like Hydra's heads, two have replaced him: Joe Sestak, a vice-admiral and former congressman from Pennsylvania is running a quixotic campaign, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge-fund manager has entered. I like Steyer, but do we really need another dilettante in the White House? Politicians may be a low breed, but at least they know how government works, something we have found out is sorely lacking in the current occupant.

I tend to remain optimistic about the Democrats chances in 2020. Donald Trump seems to be banking his popularity on being racist, which will certainly cement his popularity among the basket of deplorables, while turning off many more, which will drive up voter turnout. He could be running on the economy, which appears to be good, although maybe he doesn't find that sexy enough or his handlers realize that's all smoke and mirrors. Unemployment is low, but wages continue to be stagnant, and many of those jobs are held by the same people. Now you have to have two jobs to pay the rent and feed your family.