The 92nd Academy Awards: Best Actress

For all appearances it would seem that the Best Actress race in this year's Oscars is a lock. But last year Glenn Close was the most solid of all locks, and she lost. I can't ever consider anyone a sure thing anymore, as if Close could lose, so can anyone.

That being said, the odds-on favorite this year is Renee Zellweger for her performance as Judy Garland in Judy. It is a fine performance, and has some intangibles as well: she is playing a real person, which the Academy loves, she is playing a beloved figure, and Zellweger has returned from a hiatus that gives her a comeback-kid status. She has won before, for Best Supporting Actress for Cold Mountain, but I don't think that will stop her. She won the Golden Globe and the SAG, so an upset here would be astounding.

And who would that be, should there be an upset? Perhaps Charlize Theron, another previous winner, but playing a real person, Megyn Kelly, in Bombshell. Theron also produced the film, and does an uncanny job of capturing Kelly's icy TV persona. The movie didn't get a lot of traction, but it did get one more nomination than Judy, so that can't be a big factor.

Less likely is Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story. As mentioned in my post on Best Supporting Actress, Johansson has two nominations this year, but seems destined to go home empty-handed, and is more likely to win in that category. Her better performance is in this category, as an actress going through a painful divorce, but the competition is tougher here.

Cynthia Erivo also has two nominations this year. Not only is she nominated for Best Actress in Harriet, as American hero Harriet Tubman, but is nominated for composing a Best Song for the same film. Erivo is not likely to win either, but her chances are better in Song. Interestingly, she is only win way from the cherished EGOT designation, previously winning an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony. If she does pull it off, at 32 she'd be the youngest to do so.

Saoirse Ronan now has four nominations by the age of 25--only Jennifer Lawrence has done it faster. She is nominated for her performance as Jo March,in Little Women, the second after Winona Ryder to be nominated for that role. Ronan will certainly win one day, but there's just too many ahead of her here. She has become the kind of actress you look forward to what she will do next, and one hopes there will be another collaboration with Greta Gerwig, who has now directed her to two nominations.

Will Win: Zellweger
Might Win: Theron
Should Win: Zellweger
Should Have Been Nominated: Awkwafina, The Farewell