The 92nd Academy Awards: Best Supporting Actress

There are four solid favorites in the acting categories at this year's Oscars, and perhaps the surest best is Laura Dern for her turn as a hard-nosed divorce lawyer in Marriage Story. This is not because the performance is so transcendent; in fact, though Dern is solid in the role, there are no stand-up-and-take-notice scenes. Frankly, I think this is more of a career award for her, honoring her long time in the business (since she was a kid) and that she's Hollywood royalty, the daughter of two other previous Oscar nominees, Bruce Dern and Diane Ladd.

Also, there really isn't anyone else in this category that I can see winning. If there is a shock, it could be Scarlett Johansson for her role as the mother of a boy enamored with Hitler in Jojo Rabbit. This is because Johansson is nominated in two categories (also in Best Actress for Marriage Story) and voters may want to select her for something. She is the twelfth performer to be nominated in two categories for acting, and of the previous eleven, seven won one (nobody has won two). Again, Johansson is not flashy in this role, but if there's a surprise, I think it would be her.

The other three nominees can just enjoy the night. I loved Florence Pugh as Amy in Little Women, and I would vote for her, but she's new to the scene and not a lot of people saw this nomination coming. I think she'll win an Oscar someday, but not this year.

Margot Robbie, as a composite character in Bombshell, is also very good--I won't soon forget the cringe-worthy scene when Roger Ailes has her pull her skirt up--and I can see Robbie winning someday, but she's still young and has plenty of time.

Finally, Kathy Bates is nominated for her role as the mother of the title character in Richard Jewell, a film I haven't seen. Bates has won before, and the film tanked, so it's a bit of a victory that she was nominated at all.

Will Win: Laura Dern
Might Win: Scarlett Johansson
Should Win: Florence Pugh
Should Have Been Nominated: Thomasin McKenzie, for Jojo Rabbit. I thought this was the better performance from that film.