Brave New World

A few weeks ago I posted on the candidates for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in the Veteran's Committee, and now we know the slate of players that will be voted on by the Baseball Writers of America. This year is an absolute cluster-fuck, and will be interesting to see how it breaks down.

There are a lot of worthy candidates this year; some are holdovers from previous years, others are new to the list. There are also, complicating matters, those players who would be in except for their PED taint.

But the baseball writers have a rule that could make election difficult. They can only vote for ten players. Now, normally that's not a problem, as there aren't often ten worthy players on the list. But this year there are, and this could mean that few of them will get the necessary 75 percent to be elected. Imagine that a movie hall of  fame started this year, and everyone in movie history was eligible. But you only have ten votes. Who do you leave off? Charlie Chaplin? Alfred Hitchcock? D.W. Griffith? Clark Gable? There would probably be no one that would get 75 percent.

Many writers, in an example of what happens when someone gets a little power, have also instituted an arbitrary "first ballot" distinction, deciding that some players deserve election in their first year of eligibility, and others do not. This is not in the rules, and nowhere on the plaques in the gallery does it say what year of eligibility the player was elected or by what committee. All Hall of Famers are equal. But this has meant that some players do not get in in their first year, even though a writer may think of worthy in their second year. These writers should be flogged.

All that be certain this year is that Greg Maddux will get in. Winner of 355 games, four straight Cy Youngs, and, if that wasn't enough, 17 Gold Gloves, Maddux is one of the all-time greats, and should come close to a unanimous vote. But will Tom Glavine, his teammate on the Brave teams of the '90s, also get in? He should, with a record of 305-203 and two Cy Youngs of his own. But I fear that he will be overshadowed by Maddux, and will get in in some future year, thus spoiling a chance of Maddux, Glavine, and their manager Bobby Cox of making it a poignant Brave reunion in Cooperstown this July.

Here are the other players who would be on my ballot:

Craig Biggio, who was unjustly denied last year (no one was elected by the writers last year), who is in the magic 3,000 hit club, and his teammate Jeff Bagwell, who has slowly increased his vote total in three straight elections. Another player unfairly denied last year was Mike Piazza, who is the greatest hitting catcher of all time. I suppose he has a PED taint, although he was never officially accused.

Another holdover who is unfairly ignored is Alan Trammell, one of the best shortstops of the 20th century. He has never received more than 36 percent of the vote, so it will be up to a future veteran's committee to elect him.

Of the first-timers, other than Maddux and Glavine, I would vote for Frank Thomas, the "Big Hurt." His numbers--almost 2500 hits, over 500 home runs, and a .301 lifetime batting average, merit inclusion, but he may lose some votes for being mostly a designated hitter, a distinction that writes are going to have to get over (and certainly will by the time David Ortiz is eligible).

I would also vote for Jeff Kent, who has more home runs as a second baseman than anyone in history. He may lose votes because he played for so many teams (I think a player's identification with one team helps their image) and a not-so-friendly reputation.

Those who I would not vote for, after careful consideration, are Jack Morris (Tom Verducci had a long article on why he should be elected on Sports Illustrated's web site). Morris was the highest winning pitcher of the '80s, was the ace of three different championship teams, and threw one of the most storied World Series games in history, but his lifetime E.R.A. would be the highest of any inductee. He has come close--he got 67 percent last year, but it is his last year of eligibility on the writer's ballot.

I also wouldn't vote for Tim Raines, who a lot of people think deserves enshrinement, or Larry Walker or Mike Mussina, who are near misses, but no cigar from me.

That leaves the PED crowd, led by Barry Bonds, and including Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire. I've come to the conclusion that these guys don't deserve election, which is a shame, because I think that most of them would have had Hall of Fame careers even without chemically enhancing.

The vote results will be announced in January.