Oscar 2013 Predictions, Round 1

"Will I get an Oscar nomination?"

Tomorrow the Screen Actors Guild will announce their nominations; the Golden Globes will announce the following day. The Oscar race will come into sharper focus then. Before that happens, here is where the race is after many critics' organizations have given their awards.

It is important to remember that their are no critics in the Academy, so critics' awards don't match up often with Oscar. However, they can bring attention to films and performers. For example, after the National Board of Review and the L.A. Film Critics both named Her as Best Picture, that film certainly has much more visibility. The same for Bruce Dern in Nebraska (he has also been out on the hustings campaigning). On the other hand, Captain Phillips, which I thought might be a dark horse contender for a Best Picture Oscar, has been blanked so far. But, of course, so was Argo.

The Best Picture race is wide open right now. I suppose 12 Years a Slave might still be considered a front-runner, but it's a tough sit. Something more conventionally entertaining may jump to the fore, such as Gravity or Captain Phillips, or maybe even American Hustle or The Wolf of Wall Street.

The acting categories are also wide open. I would venture to say that though there may be front-runners, such as Cate Blanchett for Best Actress or Robert Redford for Best Actor, the races are all very fluid.

Best Picture

Locks: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle
Safe Bets: Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street
In the Mix: The Butler, Saving Mr. Banks, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, All Is Lost, Her

Best Director

Locks: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Safe Bets: Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips; Ethan and Joel Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
In the Mix: David O. Russell, American Hustle; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street, Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine, Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor

Locks: Robert Redford, All Is Lost; Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Safe Bet: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
In the Mix: Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Forest Whitaker, The Butler; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Best Actress

Locks: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Safe Bets: Judi Dench, Philomena; Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
In the Mix: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County; Amy Adams, American Hustle; Adele Exarchopoulo, Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor

Locks: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club, Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Safe Bets: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
In the Mix: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; George Clooney, Gravity, James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actress

Locks: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Safe Bets: Oprah Winfrey, The Butler; Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
In the Mix: Julia Roberts, August: Osage County, June Squibb, Nebraska; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine