Oscar Talk, Already?

It's getting to be that time of year. The summer blockbusters are vacating popcorn-strewn theaters and the fall, "prestige" pictures are readying for release. It is only natural that a cinephile's thoughts turn to Oscar.

It used to be that I never thought about Oscar until the Fall Preview issue of Premiere (now Entertainment Weekly) came out. But the Internet scotched that. Anybody with an opinion and knowledge of HTML can now create a Web page and blast their predictions into cyberspace. Many of them put up their predictions the day after the Oscar ceremony. This is like predicting the weather a year in advance, it's all based on pedigrees of the director and stars. It's a free country, though, so anybody can do it, I suppose, and if they get one or two right they can crow about it.

So this is my first peep on the subject. I've loved the Oscars since I was about ten. I suppose it's because it merges two things I love--movies and sports, as it turns films and actors into race horses to be handicapped. The key to handicapping, though, is to be dispassionate. Many film critics are bad at picking winners because if they like or dislike a film, they have trouble understanding how anyone else could disagree.

So, what are the frontrunners for Best Picture? Here is a short list. I would expect at least three to come from the following:

Flags of Our Fathers
About the men who raised the flag on Iwo Jima in the famous photograph. Directed by Oscar darling Clint Eastwood, who seems to be able to do no wrong lately. Seems to have lots of gravitas, and could appeal to both the conservative minded and the liberal, since one of the men, Ira Hayes, was a Native-American who was mistreated after the war.

Dreamgirls
After Chicago won Best Picture for 2002, all of a sudden people were talking about a musical revival. Well, Phantom of the Opera and The Producers were both busts. Bill Condon has a good track record, and there is a lot of star power with Jamie Foxx, Beyonce and Eddie Murphy in the cast. But I'm not sure about tons of nominations, including Best Picture.

The Departed
Every picture Martin Scorsese makes now seems to get Oscar talk, as in "Will Marty ever win." We've gone through that twice now, with Gangs of New York and The Aviator. There's less buzz about The Departed, as it is described as less of an art picture than a shoot-'em up, and it is a remake of a Hong Kong picture. Maybe this is the way Scorsese wins, when nobody anticipates it. Jack Nicholson, Leonardo DiCaprio and Matt Damon co-star.

The Good Shepherd
Matt Damon also stars in the this film about the CIA during the Cold War, directed by Robert DeNiro. DeNiro's directing history is not strong, but Oscar seems to love actors-turned-directors. Angelina Jolie also stars.

The Good German
George Clooney, who seems to have been sprinkled with pixie dust, has another serious, black and white film in the offing, this time directed by Oscar-winning director Steven Soderbergh. It takes place in post-war Germany. Seems to have the smell of Oscar all over it.

World Trade Center
Just released, this Oliver Stone picture is surprising everyone by how different it is from the usual Stone fare. I plan on seeing it this weekend. Discomfort about the whole 9/11 issue seems to be keeping the box office lukewarm. But films that do small box office can get nominated for Best Picture.

Babel
Innovative director Alejandro González Iñárritu has gotten sniffs of Oscar before, with Amores Perres and 21 Grams. Babel is an international, multi-plotted ensemble. It might be a bit too arty for the general voting body, but he's a strong Best Director candidate. Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett star.

Things will shift over the next few months, as films are released and flop, and dark horses emerge. After all, no one predicted Million Dollar Baby until the film was actually released. It wasn't even filmed until the summer of that year.