Reading the Oscar Tea Leaves--Best Actor

Unlike Best Actress, the Best Actor race is much more unfocused. There are several heavy hitters in films that are about to be released, but if the films are no good the chances for nominations sink. This is what we do know:

Forest Whitaker is close to a lock for his role as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Whitaker, an actor who has given superb, subtle performances, will likely be honored for going balls to the wall as the maniacal Amin. Again, performances as real people seem to earn points, as well as playing real people with gigantic personalities, no matter how psychopathic.

Another near-lock is Peter O'Toole (pictured) in the film Venus. I know practically nothing about this film, except that it's about an old man's love for a young woman. The Best Actor category is not usually one won by actors in films that are barely seen, but this could be an exception. If O'Toole gets nominated, how can he not win? It would be his eighth nomination, and no performer has ever gone 0 for 8 (O'Toole is currently tied with Richard Burton for Oscar futility among performers, but he did pick up an Honorary Oscar a few years ago). The hurdle, it seems to me, is getting the film out there and noticed to get O'Toole the nomination.

Other possibilities include Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed or for Blood Diamond, Matt Damon for The Good Shepherd (or The Departed, but less likely. Damon seems to be outshone by DiCaprio and Nicholson), George Clooney for The Good German, and Derek Luke for Catch a Fire. Perhaps more likely is Will Smith from The Pursuit of Happyness. Smith may well be honored for his continuing and astonishing career arc--a novelty rap act to a TV sit-com star to a major film star. Happyness, I read, is one of those rags-to-riches, tear-jerking films that the Academy would probably lap up.

There is also probably an actor who will get nominated that no one is thinking about right now, which is what makes the whole thing so much fun.