Reading the Oscar Tea Leaves--Best Actress

Now that the Toronto Film Festival is over, there is more clarity for long-term Oscar prognostication. Some films get dumped by the curb, such as All the King's Men, while other films and performances, such as Peter O'Toole in Venus, leap to the forefront.

Best Actress is always interesting because of the shortage of juicy parts for women. Therefore, performances from small independent or foreign films can sneak in. This year, however, there are already a surfeit of candidates for the five nominations. Three of them, I think it's safe to say, are close to locks.



The pole position is held by Helen Mirren (pictured), as Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen. For some reason, the actors branch seems to love performances as real people. Mirren, who has also played Queen Elizabeth I, corners the market on British queens of that name in the film that covers the royal family in the period following Diana's death. If that isn't enough, she's British, always a plus for Oscar voters, and an accomplished actress with two previous nominations. I think she's the early favorite.

There are two other sure-fire nominations by performers who could spoil Mirren because they are "due." Annette Bening, who has been beaten out by Hilary Swank twice (and lost another Supporting nomination as well) will be in full crazy-bitch mode in Running With Scissors. Also, Kate Winslet seems a shoo-in for her role in Little Children, a dark tale about the underbelly of suburbia. It would be Winslet's fifth nomination, but she's still only about thirty, so the Academy may feel she has plenty of opportunities.

For the other two spots, the nominees should come from this group: Meryl Streep, from The Devil Wears Prada. I didn't see it (I will rent it, if only to slowly savor Anne Hathaway), and there seems to be some debate about whether it is a lead or supporting performance. Performers have no choice in the matter--the Academy voters decide, and it there is a split she could get left out. Also in consideration is Penelope Cruz, in Almodovar's latest, Volver, and Maggie Gyllenhaal, for the indie Sherrybaby. Also in the mix are Judi Dench, a perennial nominee, for Notes on a Scandal, and Cate Blanchett, who is also in that film, as well as The Good German.

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