Oscar Forecast: Best Actor, Actress
This week I turn to the lead performances nominated for Oscar. As with the supporting performances, the easier category to predict is Best Actress.
If Helen Mirren doesn't win for her portrayal of Elizabeth II in The Queen, the reverberations may topple the Kodak Theater. Mirren, a highly respected actress who has been nominated three times for an Academy Award, has won just about every precursor award there is (she also seems to keep winning for a TV movie about the first Queen Elizabeth, thus making her go through acceptance speeches like tissues). The remaining foursome can sit back and relax and not worry about ascending to the podium. This means that Kate Winslet, who now has five nominations and is only 31-years old, will again go home empty-handed. Her work as a frustrated housewife in Little Children was brilliant, but there will no topping Mirren. Also brilliant was Judi Dench, as a scorned teacher in Notes on a Scandal. Judi has the right idea and is staying home to have knee surgery. Meryl Streep, who gives a deliciously wicked turn as the boss from Hell in The Devil Wears Prada, now increases her record of 14 nominations as a performer. The downside? She has lost a record number of times. This time will be her 12th. Penelope Cruz, as a harried mother and daughter in Almodovar's Volver, makes the leap from glamour-puss to serious actress with this nomination, but she won't win.
As for Best Actor, a lot of predictors have this one in the bag, but I'm stubborn. Certainly Forest Whitaker, as the megalomaniacal Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland is the front-runner. It's a bombastic performance, and he plays a real person, catnip to the Oscar voter. He's a well-respected, if not particularly well-known actor, and he's won most of the precursors. However, I can't dismiss the possibility that Peter O'Toole, who has now been nominated eight times but has never won in competition, will finally win. He plays an aged actor who falls into a relationship with a young woman in Venus. Should he lose, O'Toole would break the record for Oscar futility. However, he did win an honorary Oscar a few years ago. Perhaps that is so fresh in voters minds that they won't feel obligated to vote for him this time. It should be noted, though, that both Henry Fonda and Paul Newman, who also went for years without winning an Oscar, won Best Actor just a year or two after winning an honorary statuette.
Will Smith, who plays a man who is trying to raise his son alone while seeking to better his career in The Pursuit of Happyness might win in a weaker year, but he doesn't have the ammo this year. Many were surprised that Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated for his role as a smuggler in Blood Diamond, rather than The Departed. Surely the ambiguity of whether he was lead or supporting in The Departed split the vote. Ryan Gosling, as a drug-addicted teacher in Half Nelson, surprised some with a nomination, since the film was very low profile. He is an exciting young actor, but shouldn't expect to win.
So, Mirren is a lock, and I'll go with Whitaker as well, but would be pleased to see O'Toole win.
If Helen Mirren doesn't win for her portrayal of Elizabeth II in The Queen, the reverberations may topple the Kodak Theater. Mirren, a highly respected actress who has been nominated three times for an Academy Award, has won just about every precursor award there is (she also seems to keep winning for a TV movie about the first Queen Elizabeth, thus making her go through acceptance speeches like tissues). The remaining foursome can sit back and relax and not worry about ascending to the podium. This means that Kate Winslet, who now has five nominations and is only 31-years old, will again go home empty-handed. Her work as a frustrated housewife in Little Children was brilliant, but there will no topping Mirren. Also brilliant was Judi Dench, as a scorned teacher in Notes on a Scandal. Judi has the right idea and is staying home to have knee surgery. Meryl Streep, who gives a deliciously wicked turn as the boss from Hell in The Devil Wears Prada, now increases her record of 14 nominations as a performer. The downside? She has lost a record number of times. This time will be her 12th. Penelope Cruz, as a harried mother and daughter in Almodovar's Volver, makes the leap from glamour-puss to serious actress with this nomination, but she won't win.
As for Best Actor, a lot of predictors have this one in the bag, but I'm stubborn. Certainly Forest Whitaker, as the megalomaniacal Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland is the front-runner. It's a bombastic performance, and he plays a real person, catnip to the Oscar voter. He's a well-respected, if not particularly well-known actor, and he's won most of the precursors. However, I can't dismiss the possibility that Peter O'Toole, who has now been nominated eight times but has never won in competition, will finally win. He plays an aged actor who falls into a relationship with a young woman in Venus. Should he lose, O'Toole would break the record for Oscar futility. However, he did win an honorary Oscar a few years ago. Perhaps that is so fresh in voters minds that they won't feel obligated to vote for him this time. It should be noted, though, that both Henry Fonda and Paul Newman, who also went for years without winning an Oscar, won Best Actor just a year or two after winning an honorary statuette.Will Smith, who plays a man who is trying to raise his son alone while seeking to better his career in The Pursuit of Happyness might win in a weaker year, but he doesn't have the ammo this year. Many were surprised that Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated for his role as a smuggler in Blood Diamond, rather than The Departed. Surely the ambiguity of whether he was lead or supporting in The Departed split the vote. Ryan Gosling, as a drug-addicted teacher in Half Nelson, surprised some with a nomination, since the film was very low profile. He is an exciting young actor, but shouldn't expect to win.
So, Mirren is a lock, and I'll go with Whitaker as well, but would be pleased to see O'Toole win.
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