Oscar Forecast: Best Supporting Actor, Actress
Over the next three weeks I'll join in the Oscar-prediction circle jerk and post my thoughts of who will win. I'll start today with Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Next week, the lead performances, and then Director and Picture (plus a one-line prediction for all awards).
I'll start with an easy category, Best Supporting Actress. It can probably be said without too much hesitation that Jennifer Hudson won this award when she was given the part of proud, big-boned Effie White in Dreamgirls. Her larger-than-life voice and presence is an easy sell to win an award, despite her merely adequate acting abilities. The backstory of being an American Idol cast-off certainly is a big part of the appeal.
If Hudson has any competition at all, it might come from Abigail Breslin as Olive, the precocious beauty pageant contestant in Little Miss Sunshine. This is the category where youngsters Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin took home trophies, but I would be dumbfounded if Hudson loses.
Also-rans in this category are Cate Blanchett, as a teacher who can't keep her hands off a teenage boy in Notes on a Scandal, (Blanchett won two years ago for The Aviator), and two actresses from Babel, Adriana Barraza, as a nanny and illegal immigrant who makes a foolish decision, and Rinko Kikuchi, who plays a deaf Japanese girl longing for connection to others. These two are both unknown performers who will likely split any of the Babel vote.
In the Supporting Actor category, there is a clear front-runner, but I smell an upset. Eddie Murphy, who plays a James Brown-like singer in Dreamgirls, has won the Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild award. He is a megastar that has earned billions for the studios, and is perceived to be in a "comeback" (mainly due to several flops he made in the last ten years or so). Predicting him to win the Oscar is not going out on a limb.
But I'm not sure Murphy is a beloved figure in Hollywood, and there is a clear alternative in Alan Arkin, as the crotchety Grandpa in Little Miss Sunshine. Arkin has been nominated twice before, but not for 38 years. While not a major name, he is certainly a respected actor, and may have the chops to best Murphy.
In the "happy to just be nominated" category is Jackie Earle Haley as Ronnie, the pedophile, in Little Children. Haley was a child star in Bad News Bears and Breaking Away, but over the years gave up acting and actually worked for a while as a pizza delivery boy. His stunning reversal of fortune is a good story, and I hope he enjoys the attention, because he's not going to win.
Mark Wahlberg, as Dignam, the acid-tongued cop in The Departed, is another interesting story. It's somewhat hard to imagine that rapper and underwear model Marky Mark is now an Oscar-nominated actor, but Wahlberg has become a bankable actor. He is the only nominee from the rich cast of the film, even over Jack Nicholson. A large part of this is due to his incredibly funny and profane dialogue.
Djimon Hounsou is the fifth nominee, as a fisherman caught up in civil war in Blood Diamond. Hounsou has a rep for playing noble Africans, and this is his second nomination. I didn't think it was anything Oscar-worthy, but he seems to be a favorite of some. Hard to imagine him winning.
So, Hudson in a walk and I'll pick Arkin in a squeaker over Murphy.
I'll start with an easy category, Best Supporting Actress. It can probably be said without too much hesitation that Jennifer Hudson won this award when she was given the part of proud, big-boned Effie White in Dreamgirls. Her larger-than-life voice and presence is an easy sell to win an award, despite her merely adequate acting abilities. The backstory of being an American Idol cast-off certainly is a big part of the appeal.If Hudson has any competition at all, it might come from Abigail Breslin as Olive, the precocious beauty pageant contestant in Little Miss Sunshine. This is the category where youngsters Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin took home trophies, but I would be dumbfounded if Hudson loses.
Also-rans in this category are Cate Blanchett, as a teacher who can't keep her hands off a teenage boy in Notes on a Scandal, (Blanchett won two years ago for The Aviator), and two actresses from Babel, Adriana Barraza, as a nanny and illegal immigrant who makes a foolish decision, and Rinko Kikuchi, who plays a deaf Japanese girl longing for connection to others. These two are both unknown performers who will likely split any of the Babel vote.
In the Supporting Actor category, there is a clear front-runner, but I smell an upset. Eddie Murphy, who plays a James Brown-like singer in Dreamgirls, has won the Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild award. He is a megastar that has earned billions for the studios, and is perceived to be in a "comeback" (mainly due to several flops he made in the last ten years or so). Predicting him to win the Oscar is not going out on a limb.
But I'm not sure Murphy is a beloved figure in Hollywood, and there is a clear alternative in Alan Arkin, as the crotchety Grandpa in Little Miss Sunshine. Arkin has been nominated twice before, but not for 38 years. While not a major name, he is certainly a respected actor, and may have the chops to best Murphy.
In the "happy to just be nominated" category is Jackie Earle Haley as Ronnie, the pedophile, in Little Children. Haley was a child star in Bad News Bears and Breaking Away, but over the years gave up acting and actually worked for a while as a pizza delivery boy. His stunning reversal of fortune is a good story, and I hope he enjoys the attention, because he's not going to win.
Mark Wahlberg, as Dignam, the acid-tongued cop in The Departed, is another interesting story. It's somewhat hard to imagine that rapper and underwear model Marky Mark is now an Oscar-nominated actor, but Wahlberg has become a bankable actor. He is the only nominee from the rich cast of the film, even over Jack Nicholson. A large part of this is due to his incredibly funny and profane dialogue.
Djimon Hounsou is the fifth nominee, as a fisherman caught up in civil war in Blood Diamond. Hounsou has a rep for playing noble Africans, and this is his second nomination. I didn't think it was anything Oscar-worthy, but he seems to be a favorite of some. Hard to imagine him winning.
So, Hudson in a walk and I'll pick Arkin in a squeaker over Murphy.
Comments
Post a Comment