The Homestretch

With just under four weeks to go until the election, Democrats can be excused for feeling a little giddy. Nervous, because things have a tendency to get fouled up at the last second, but definitely giddy, as it appears that Barack Obama will be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Last night's debate in Nashville did nothing to change that.

The math is just too overwhelming for John McCain to overcome. Look at this way: Obama is ahead by at least five points in every state John Kerry won in 2004. He is also significantly ahead in Iowa and New Mexico, which both went for Bush. That puts him at 267 electoral votes, four shy of putting him over the top. He would only need to one win from the "battleground" states: Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri or Colorado, and he is ahead or tied in all of them. There are only two ways he can lose this election: a blunder of momentous proportions, such as a photo of him shaking hands with Osama bin Laden, or a rigorous application of the "Bradley effect," which means people who say they will vote for Obama out of some kind of racial guilt but then in the seclusion of the voting booth do the opposite. Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I don't think either of those things are going to happen.

As for the debate, it wasn't a rout by either side, but Obama is playing prevent defense. He's not making petty attacks against McCain, and doing his best to be reassuringly presidential, and I think he has succeeded in both debates. Last night he was certainly the clearer one, spelling out his tax proposal and health care plans, while McCain, wandering the stage like an old man hunting for his keys, could only offer cheery bromides about how America's future is bright. The morning news was dominated by his referring to Obama at one point as "that one," and while I doubt McCain meant any disrespect or Obama took any, it can't be good for McCain that that moment is the one everyone is remembering.

Coupling this with the first debate and the VP debate, which I thought Biden won easily over an obviously out-of-her-depth Sarah Palin (who seemed to be doing an impersonation of Tina Fey impersonating herself, with a touch of Marge Gunderson thrown in), the American people seem more and more at ease with the concept of an Obama presidency. The financial crisis turned out to be the late-September surprise, but in this case it helps the Democratic party. There is also a good chance that the Democrats could win sixty seats in the Senate, which would be filibuster-proof.

The McCain-Palin campaign, clearly reading the polls, has resorted to nastiness in spades. Trying to make the acquaintanceship between Obama and former Weatherman Bill Ayers is a desperate gambit that doesn't seem to be working. Perhaps Palin can go around the country and suggest Obama is a Muslim, which an absurd number of Americans still believe. McCain, for some reason, didn't make any personal attacks in the debate last night. Perhaps the decent, honorable man that he claims he is was too ashamed to resort to such mudslinging. We can only hope.