Oscar, Best Actor: A Surprise Guest

As with Best Actress, there are a lot of familiar names in the Best Actor hunt this year, but there's also a few names that are eye-poppingly surprising, as if someone had done a random search through the IMDB. As I type this, I'm still amazed that the words Mickey Rourke are going hand in hand with Oscar nominee, but by all accounts of those who have seen it, Rourke's work as the title character in The Wrestler is a slam-dunk for a nomination. Of course, Rourke was once a respected actor, back in the day, but over the years has turned into a bizarre parody of an actor. Apparently director Darren Aronofsky hit on the perfect use for Rourke--as a washed-up professional wrestler.

I think it's too soon to proclaim Rourke the eventual winner, as it could be that the nomination will be a victory all too itself. Thus it is time to bring in the heavy hitters, actors who have several nominations or have won before. We can start with Sean Penn, who is the title character in Milk, the martyred San Francisco city councilman. There's also Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road, which appears to be the prestige release this Christmas. And you can't count out Clint Eastwood, who's back in one of two films he's directing this year, Gran Torino.

Other possibilities are Viggo Mortensen in The Road, Robert Downey Jr. in The Soloist (Downey has had such a great year that it seems like the Academy may want to honor him, and his role in this Shine retread seems more likely than Iron Man or as a Supporting Actor for Tropic Thunder), or Will Smith in Seven Pounds. Then there's Benicio Del Toro for Che, but if it's released as two films it will be problematic, as he's very likely to split votes.

From the never-nominated-before category a very strong possibility is Frank Langella as the disgraced president in Frost/Nixon (he would be the second actor nominated for that role, after Anthony Hopkins), and sticking with presidents, Josh Brolin as the current occupant in W. It's hard to know how that picture will be regarded, either by audiences or Academy members, and I tend to doubt it will get any nominations, but it's certainly a possibility. My personal favorite this year is Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, but I'm not holding my breath.

If I were to name a favorite to win it all at this early date, I would go with Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. He's only been nominated once before, for Twelve Monkeys. Since then he's become a super-duper star, at least in terms of press coverage, and because this a role that requires some strenuous activity (aging, but in reverse) I get the feeling it's the kind of part that the Academy would honor, especially given the actor's pretty-boy status.