Oscar Picks: Supporting Actor, Actress

Over the next few days I'll discuss my predictions for the upcoming Oscar ceremony, with a detailed look at the major nominations. I'll start with Supporting Actor, which is perhaps the easiest award to call. If the late Heath Ledger, who memorably inhabited the mysterious, evil Joker in The Dark Knight doesn't win, it will prove to an upset of major proportions.

If Ledger had not died just over a year ago, I think he still would have been the favorite, but that added sorrow only cements the selection. His work transcended the comic book-film genre, and will surely stand the test of time as one of the great villainous performances of all time. He would join Peter Finch as the only posthumous performer ever to win the award. It should be noted that posthumous nominations do not always lead to a win--Jeanne Eagels, Ralph Richardson, Massimo Troisi, and James Dean (twice) were all so honored with nominations, but did not win.

As for the rest of the field, it's hard to even contemplate who would win if Ledger didn't. I suppose second place could go to Josh Brolin for his turn as Dan White, murderer of Harvey Milk in the film Milk. Brolin gives a fine, shaded performance as a seemingly normal man beset by demons. Philip Seymour Hoffman, as the priest suspected of sexual abuse in Doubt, also gave a great performance, but he won only a few years ago. Robert Downey Jr. surprised some by getting a nomination for a broadly comic performance in Tropic Thunder, so it would be a seismic shock if he were to win. Performances like his rarely cop the gold, in fact the only one I can think of like it was Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda twenty years ago, and Kline had no one like Ledger to compete with.

Finally, Michael Shannon, who was memorable for a small part in Revolutionary Road, will have to be content with getting an invitation to the dance. He's a largely unknown actor in a film that didn't receive a lot of love from the Academy.

As for Supporting Actress, that race is more interesting, basically limited to two women. It's tough to predict this year because of category disorientation by some of the precursors. The Golden Globe and SAG awards went to Kate Winslet for The Reader, but she is not to be found in this category--she was properly included in the lead category by the Academy. However, Penelope Cruz, who played the mentally unstable ex-wife of Javier Bardem in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, just picked up the BAFTA award, which I think gives her a slight edge in this category. Her role allowed for some extravagant scenery-chewing, and there's ample precedent of women winning Oscars for Woody Allen films (four so far: Diane Keaton, Mira Sorvino, and Dianne Wiest twice).

However, Cruz's nomination for Vicky Cristina Barcelona is the only one for the film, indicating it was not well loved by the Academy. That's not in itself a disqualifier (just two years ago Forest Whitaker won Best Actor for The Last King of Scotland's only nomination) but a caution. If Cruz doesn't win, I think it will be Viola Davis, as the mother of a boy who has perhaps been abused by a priest in Doubt. Davis' role is very short, limited to one extended scene of the picture, but it packs a wallop. She would have the edge over her co-star, Amy Adams, who plays a conflicted nun. Adams' performance, while good, is in a kind of role that exists mainly as a plot device, and none of her scenes is up to Davis' for emotional nakedness.

Taraji P. Henson, as Benjamin Button's surrogate mother in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, also lacks the kind of emotionally heavy scene to win. And finally Marisa Tomei, as a stripper who forms a bond with Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, probably needn't rehearse a speech, as she has already won an Oscar, and the role may be a bit seamy for Oscar tastes.