Oscar Predictions: Best Director, Picture (and the rest)

I've gone through a learning curve during this year's Oscar season. Back in the fall, when bloggers like David Poland declared that Slumdog Millionaire was the favorite for Best Picture, I scoffed. Once again, I thought, we have an independent film, like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, that enthusiastic Oscar chatterers are getting behind, when the chances of them winning fly in the face of Oscar reason. After all, Slumdog is an independent film that was at one point headed straight for DVD. I figured it would get it's share of nominations, maybe pick up a Screenplay win, and that would be it.

But time has proven me wrong. As fall became winter, challengers to Slumdog stepped up and swung and missed. All of the precursors lauded it: the Golden Globes, the PGA, the SAG, the WGA, and most importantly, the DGA (the DGA winner wins the Oscar for Director over 90 percent of the time, and the Best Director winner matches the Best Picture winner over 80 percent of the time). Now, three days before the ceremony, there is no earthly reason to believe that Slumdog Millionaire, despite having no stars and stemming from a non-Western culture, won't win Best Picture, as well as Best Director, plus three or four other awards.

The film I was sure would come up and smite it was The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which has all of the stuff Oscar usually loves: it's big, it's self-important, it's long, it has big stars, and it's a technical masterpiece. It's also pretty boring, and I didn't like it myself, so I can't knock the voters if they turn away from it. But I'm a bit confused how it got all the love of 13 nominations, only one off the record. It must have a rabid core group that is in a minority.

If Slumdog doesn't win, a real shocker, I suppose it will be Button that does, although there's some who think The Reader stands a chance, given that Harvey Weinstein is behind it. But I think Weinstein's Oscar voodoo is a thing of the past, and this drab depressing picture, even if it does have a Holocaust theme, won't win. Frost/Nixon, which in other years might have been the favorite, seems likely to be the film that doesn't get anything.

My vote in this category would go to Milk, which moved and thrilled me more than any of the others. It will be interesting to see if and when a gay-themed film ever wins Best Picture. Frankly, I think this should have been the year. I thought Slumdog Millionaire was a nice entertainment, but didn't approach the majesty of Milk.

For the Academy's first seventy years, it was taken for granted that whoever directed the Best Picture winner would win Best Director. You could count on one hand the number of times they didn't match. But in the last eleven years, there has been a split four times, which makes the Best Director race a little more interesting. There's no reason to think, though, that Danny Boyle won't get this one for Slumdog Millionaire. He has an art-house cache that makes him appealing, and now he's directed an improbable hit. David Fincher is in a similar position, having directed many films that are loved by cultists but never getting Oscar recognition until this year, for Benjamin Button. If anyone could upset, it would be him. Gus Van Sant deserves consideration, but won't win for Milk, and Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon and Stephen Daldry for The Reader are also-rans. It should be noted that Daldry has directed three films and been nominated for every one of them. The guy has a knack for selecting Oscar bait, surely he'll win some day.

Hear are my predictions for the all of the awards. Those who are watching the telecast alone may want to match mine with their own:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: The Class
Best Animated Film: WALL-E
Best Cinematography: Benjamin Button
Best Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
Best Song: Down to Earth
Best Musical Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire (though watch out for Trouble the Water)
Best Documentary Short Subject: The Witness--From the Balcony of Room 306
Best Makeup: Benjamin Button
Best Animated Short Subject: Presto
Best Live Action Short Subject: Spielzugland (Toyland)
Best Sound Editing: Dark Knight
Best Sound Mixing: Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: Benjamin Button