Oscar Predictions: Best Actress, Actor

The Best Actress race has a solid favorite, with the ripe possibility of a modest upset. The favorite has to be Kate Winslet, who seems to be riding some momentum for a win for her role as the Nazi prison guard in The Reader. This is complicated though, as two of the awards she has won this season for the role have been in the supporting actress category. The Academy positioned her in the lead actress category (which knocked her stronger performance in Revolutionary Road out of the running). This is Winslet's sixth performance, and she has never won before, and this is well-known, so even if this performance isn't as dynamic as her turns in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind or Little Children, well, that's the way it goes.

If Winslet doesn't win, and I will be surprised if she doesn't, it may be because voters have realized that Meryl Streep hasn't won an Oscar in 26 years. Streep, the most-nominated performer in Oscar history, has already won twice, but the last time she won is a distant memory. Her role as the forceful nun in Doubt is the kind that registers with voters, given all of its juicy lines. I think Streep will one day add a third Oscar to her mantle, but not before Winslet wins one.

The other three actresses in the category don't stand much choice. Anne Hathaway probably gave the most emotionally naked performance in Rachel Getting Married, and could have won in a year of weaker competition. Melissa Leo was something of a surprise for her role as a mother in distress in the indie Frozen River, but will certainly have to be content with the added name recognition the nomination will give her. And Angelina Jolie, as another mother in distress in Changeling, has already won before (and I for one didn't find it to be a great performance).

The Best Actor race figures to be the most exciting of this year's awards, and it's a two-man race with the possibility of a spoiler. I've been going back and forth over who I think will win, and when I started typing this entry I still didn't have my mind made up. In one corner is Sean Penn, who gave a brilliant performance as the slain gay-rights advocate in Milk. Penn, who for my money is the best actor working in films today, dominates the picture, and the added subtext of California recently going through a bitter campaign that failed to hold on to gay-marriage rights may figure in the voting. However, Penn won five years ago--had he never won before, I would count him a shoo-in.

In the other corner is Mickey Rourke, a once-promising actor who disappeared into the miasma of bad behavior, now resurrected in the title role of The Wrestler. Rourke's story is catnip to entertainment journalists, but will it be with Academy voters, who may find him just too weird for their tastes? When all is said and done, I think the vote will carry in Penn's favor.

If voters can't decide between these two, Frank Langella could be poised to be the compromise choice for his performance as the disgraced former president in Frost/Nixon. Langella is a well-respect thespian who has dutifully done the promotion rounds, and he (as does Penn) plays a real person, something Academy voters have a fetish for. Brad Pitt, in the title role of the man who ages backward in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, is a big star, but his role is a passive one, and there's a lot of makeup and visual effects that go with it. If he wins, how many other actors, who supplied the body for him, will go up on stage with him? Finally, Richard Jenkins, a largely unknown character actor who has been in many films over the years, finally got a starring role as an emotionally deadened economics professor who gets caught up with the plight of an illegal immigrant in The Visitor, and he made the most of it. If I had a vote I'd give it to Jenkins, who I'm sure isn't expecting a win but will enjoy the hoopla.