Oscar 2010 Forecast: Apophenia

Apophenia happens when the mind makes meaningful patterns out of meaningless or random information. I first came across the term while researching the "Dark Side of the Rainbow" phenomenon, where people listen to Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon album while watching The Wizard of Oz and see all sorts of spooky parallels. I think it is also coming in to play while forecasting this year's Oscar race for Best Picture.

This is the second year of ten nominees, and since there is only one year of history to go on (there were also more than ten nominees back in the thirties and forties, a different era entirely) there is a tendency to think that patterns will be repeated: a sci-fi film, an animated film, a British film, an indie, etc. will be nominated this year, just like last year. Of course that's all rubbish, but it makes for more fun in thinking about it.

I've been poring over the releases for the rest of the year and have come up with my initial list of the ten movies I think will be nominated, but I have no confidence in it at all. Last year I got five right, and I would be hard-pressed to do that well this year. There aren't that many movies that are obvious Oscar-bait--a good thing, I suppose, in that the prestige films this fall all have either an edge or something about them that could be off-putting. Of course, many of the films on my list have not been released yet, or even seen by anyone, so they could royally suck.

In alphabetical order:

Black Swan (Dec. 1, Darren Aronofsky) I think the Academy might be ready for Aronofsky. He's had a couple of acting nominations from his earlier work, and the milieu of the ballet world might engage the Academy's PBS pretensions. It might still be too weird, though.

Fair Game (Nov. 5, Doug Liman) Has some good early festival word, and with Sean Penn and Naomi Watts in leads should attract a lot of attention. The Valerie Plame story isn't particularly hot now, given that administrations have changed, but Hollywood would love piling on Bush/Cheney.

Hereafter (Sep. 22, Clint Eastwood) Eastwood has gone two films in a row without a Best Picture nom, so this isn't a gimme, but it's hard not to include his films in an expanded field. This would appear to be some sort of ghost story, and horror genres are not usually loved by the Academy, but it might have the juice to get some.

Inception (Jul. 16, Christopher Nolan) This film has its detractors, including me, but it's a lock for a nomination in an expanded field, given its box office and water-cooler buzz. I don't see it winning, but it should also get a trunkload of tech nods as well.

The Kids Are All Right (Jul. 9, Lisa Chodolenko) I'm not as sold on this since seeing it, but it still may well end up being the best-reviewed indie of the year, and taps into the gay-marriage controversy (though that issue is not controversial at all in the film), which will let Hollywood feel good about itself. Will certainly get some acting and writing nods.

The King's Speech (Nov. 26, Tom Hooper) Could nab the "British" nomination. Colin Firth stars as King George VI, who is beloved by the British, and how he overcame his stutter. The most Oscar-baity film of the fall.

Never Let Me Go (Sep. 15, Mark Romanek) If The King's Speech doesn't get the "British" nomination, than perhaps this one will. Smashing-looking trailer, and another film that may have a supernatural element. My pick as sleeper of the year.

Secretariat (Oct. 8, Randall Wallace) Apophenia kicking in high here, figuring there will be room for another crowd-pleaser/critic-harrumpher like The Blind Side. That Seabiscuit also got a Best Picture nomination also fuels this prediction. Of course, if the box office is tepid, forget it.

The Social Network (Oct 1, David Fincher) Easiest film to call, but also has built-in worries. Are there still too many older Academy members who have no idea what Facebook is?

Toy Story 3 (Jun. 18, Lee Unkrich) Again, too soon to tell if there will be an animated film nominated each year, but this one would be nominated even if it weren't an annual thing.

There's a lot of other intriguing releases coming up, including films from James Brooks, the Coen Brothers, Alejandro Inarritu, Danny Boyle, David Russell, Woody Allen, Ed Zwick, Julian Schnabel and Mike Leigh that could be in play. Of films already released, it's not impossible for Scorsese's Shutter Island to break through. I think this year could be shaping up as a complete mystery, Oscar-wise, much like two years ago, when the winner, Slumdog Millionaire, was on no one's radar at this point.