Oscar 2010: Best Actress

The Best Actress race is a two-gal affair that has a pretty heavy favorite with a decent chance at a sentimental upset. Natalie Portman, as the ballerina who descends into madness in Black Swan is the favorite. Much has been made of Portman's physical dedication to the role (although there have been detractors who have argued that she isn't doing that much dancing), but I was impressed with her smaller scenes, like the one in which she calls her mother to tell her she got the role in Swan Lake. Portman, who is a relatively private person when it comes to Hollywood folk, has been almost everywhere, whether by her publicist's initiatives or not (I loved the video made of her braying laugh while accepting the Golden Globe) so it feels like a win here for her is almost a fait accompli.

Only it isn't, and if enough Academy voters decide this is too much too soon for the youngish star than they can turn to addressing what may be perceived as an old wrong and give it to Annette Bening, for her performance as the lesbian parent in The Kids Are All Right. Bening has been thrice-before nominated without victory, which is not a tragedy, not in Peter O'Toole territory, but she has somehow acquired a victim label. Maybe it's because both of her losses in the Best Actress came to Hilary Swank. Her role in Kids has a lot of emotional scenes and she (along with Julianne Moore) is the best thing about the film, but she once again may lose to lightning in a bottle. In retrospect, it may have been wise to campaign here for the Supporting Actress race, which she might have won easily.

The other three actresses in the category all gave excellent performances, but don't figure to win. Jennifer Lawrence is this year's ingenue, springing from kid on a sit-com to star of the respected indie Winter's Bone, where she anchors the film as the resolute daughter in meth-cooking hill country. In the classic fashion, she has gone from unknown to appearing as a comic book superhero in short order. But her nomination is her victory.

Michelle Williams, another actress who began on TV, has earned her second nomination, this time for the harried wife in Blue Valentine, and in some ways I think she deserves the win. Her performance is subtle and sneaky, so that you aren't watching the film thinking, "Wow, she's great," it's only after it's over and you think about that you realize how transfixing she was. But the film didn't get much traction and she'll undoubtedly be in this position again, so not this year.

Finally, Nicole Kidman gives perhaps her best performance as the grieving mother of a dead child in Rabbit Hole. Kidman is a superduperstar, so her stripped-down work was refreshing to experience. She has won before, though, and the film garnered only this nomination. It's hard to imagine a scenario where she would win.

Will win: Natalie Portman
Could win: Annette Bening
Should win: Michelle Williams