Oscar 2010: Best Director, Picture

It's kind of fascinating how the Oscar "race" is seen by outsiders. There are supposed front-runners, and these front-runners are somehow eclipsed by other films. All of this happens without anyone casting a vote, and is completely based on perception and clues that may or may not have any bearing on the actual outcome.

That was certainly the case this year, when The Social Network was seen as the film to beat for the Oscar. It racked up win after win from critics' organizations, and then took the Golden Globe for Best Drama. Anyone paying attention to the race at that point would have been certain The Social Network was a mortal lock to win Best Picture. But a quick series of body-blows in January changed the landscape. The King's Speech won the Producer's Guild Award, The SAG Award, and Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild Award. Suddenly Oscar ninnies seemed dazed and confused, and many of them have not stopped bemoaning this development.

What we all seem to forget is that the Academy is a small and rarified voting group. Critics' awards don't seem to have much bearing on the Academy's tastes, and the Golden Globes are an even smaller and more idiosynchratic group than the Academy.

I've been bemused by the gnashing of teeth in the Oscar Blogosphere over these "revoltin' developments." As fascinated as I am by the Oscars, I've never invested much emotionally in the outcome, other than the results match by predictions in Oscar pools. My favorite film rarely matches the Oscar's choice--I think it's only happened a couple of times since I've been an adult--so I don't lose any sleep over whether or not my choice is going to win. My life will continue along the same course. Some say that what wins will determine Hollywood product for the immediate future, but I doubt that. The Oscar chase is a sideline for movie moguls, kind of like falconry is for sheiks--their number one concern is making money.

So why does it appear The Social Network will be beaten by The King's Speech? Some guess that it's the youthful subject matter of the former--how many of the graying eminences who belong to the Academy even know what Facebook is? There may be something to it, but I think it goes further than that. The Social Network is a cerebral film, The King's Speech is one of emotion. And emotion will win almost every time.

From where I sit, The Social Network is the best film I saw all year, but The King's Speech isn't far behind. I don't consider a crime is about to take place.

As for the other nominees, there really isn't a possibility for anything else to win. Toy Story 3 is the highest-grossing and overall best reviewed of them all, but it's not the year for an animated film to win (one wonders if that year will ever come). True Grit has its supporters, and so does Black Swan, but that film also has some vehement detractors. Inception is the choice of the fanboy element, but it may be even more cerebral than The Social Network, and its director, Christopher Nolan, was not nominated, indicating a lack of broad-based support.

The Fighter may win a couple of acting awards, but no more, and The Kids Are All Right and 127 Hours, while possibilities earlier in the year, didn't get much support in other categories. As for Winter's Bone, the small indie that snuck its way into the proceedings, well, the nomination is a major victory in itself.

When considering the race for Best Director, a lot of Oscar pundits are predicting a split, and that even if The King's Speech wins for Best Picture, The Social Network's director, David Fincher, will win for Best Director. I don't see it, and I think it's wish fulfillment. True, the BAFTAs did just that, and I wouldn't be shocked if it happens, but this would fly in the face of numbers. The DGA went to The King's Speech director Tom Hooper. In the last sixty years, only six directors have won the DGA and not gone on to win the Oscar. It last happened eight years ago, when Roman Polanski won instead of Rob Marshall. Is there enough respect for Fincher to convince voters that even if they didn't really like The Social Network, he deserves the award for directing it? Perhaps, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I think Hooper will win. Darren Aronofsky, for Black Swan, Joel and Ethan Coen, for True Grit, and David O. Russell, for The Fighter, need not prepare acceptance speeches.

So, for Best Picture:

Will win: The King's Speech
Could win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network

For Best Director:

Will win: Tom Hooper
Could win: David Fincher
Should win: David Fincher

In summary, and my picks for the other awards:

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
Best Costume Design: The King's Speech
Best Song: I See the Light
Best Musical Score: The King's Speech
Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job
Best Documentary Short Subject: Killing in the Name
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Animated Short Subject: The Gruffalo
Best Live Action Short Subject: Na Wewe
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception