Oscar 2010: Best Supporting Actress

I've saved Best Supporting Actress for last in discussing the acting categories, because it has an exciting race and I keep changing my mind to who the winner will be. Any one of four of the nominees could win and I wouldn't be surprised.

The early favorite was Melissa Leo, as the mother of The Fighter. She won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award, and seemed to distance herself from the other nominees. But something keeps me from proclaiming her the favorite for Oscar. Maybe it was her disjointed acceptance speeches. Maybe it's because her performance was a lot of acting, but not necessarily good acting (a lot of it seemed to her hairstyle). To add fuel to the confusion, Leo has been involved in a flap regarding her advertisements, in which she dolled herself up, presumably to show that she's not the hag she plays in the film. She responded to the criticism by saying that "we all pimp ourselves out," perhaps not the best choice of words. Did this lose her any votes? It's hard to know. She's right, of course, there's all sorts of advertising for these awards, but she may pay for calling attention to it.

Therefore I'm expecting the kid, Hailee Steinfeld, who was so good in True Grit, to pull off the win. Oscar is not shy about handing out statuettes to juveniles, but it hasn't happened since Anna Paquin turned the trick in 1994. When a voter has a tough choice, sometimes voting for the kid works. Steinfeld so dominated the film, which has made beaucoup bucks, that it wouldn't be anathema to the voters to choose her.

Another possible winner is Helena Bonham Carter, who plays the patient Queen in The King's Speech. If she wins it will be entirely on sentiment, as she has no big scenes in the film. Bonham Carter, along with being in the film that may sweep to victory, has been a pleasant figure on the scene for about twenty-five years now and, again, if there's confusion, casting a vote for the sentimental choice may be the way they go.

Leo, in picking up awards for The Fighter, has distanced herself from her co-star and fellow nominee Amy Adams. I would vote for Adams here, as her performance is steely and gritty and because I had long been wanting to see her play someone who was not all smiles and giggles. I thought she was terrific, and much more shaded than Leo's character, and am surprised that she hasn't gotten more traction. I suppose she has little shot at an Oscar.

Finally, Jacki Weaver, who plays a ruthless mother of criminals in Animal Kingdom, has no chance. That an unknown (at least in the U.S.) actress from a little-seen Australian film got nominated in the first place is a testament to something, even if it's just marketing. But there is no scenario I can imagine where Weaver actually wins.

Will win: Hailee Steinfeld
Could win: Melissa Leo
Should win: Amy Adams