Oscar 2013: Best Director, Picture: Gravitas
For years, a split between the Best Director and Best Picture Oscar was fairly rare--about one year in ten. But in the last fifteen years it's happened five times, so it can't be seen as an anomaly any more. It seems that Academy voters are now differentiating what they deem good direction and what they deem is the best film. Frankly, it's kind of mysterious to me, but it's happening anyway.
Everyone is sure that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity. The film is a technological marvel, and will probably sweep the below-the-line categories. Cuaron had to make it over several years, waiting for the technology to be invented. It's such a visual marvel that many are willing to overlook the story problems (except the writer's branch, which did not give it a nomination).
Cuaron would be the first Hispanic to win a Best Director Oscar. If he doesn't win, history would likely be made by Steve McQueen winning for 12 Years a Slave, which may very well win Best Picture. So why doesn't McQueen have a better shot, which would make him the first black to win the award (he's only the third nominated)? I suspect it's this new found spreading-the-wealth mentality. 12 Years a Slave may win Best Picture because it's a Serious Subject Movie, while Gravity, ironically, doesn't have the gravitas necessary to win Best Picture. Also, frankly, 12 Years a Slave does have some directing problems in pacing and structure.
The other three nominees for Best Director don't figure to win. Martin Scorsese finally got the monkey off his back seven years ago, and The Wolf of Wall Street will get shut out tonight. David O. Russell picks up his second straight nomination for American Hustle, but will probably win Best Original Screenplay. And Alexander Payne, nominated for Nebraska, would be an earthquake-level shocker.
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could win: Steve McQueen
Should win: Steve McQueen
Should have been nominated: Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club
In the Best Picture race, it's really a coin toss. Most think that 12 Years a Slave will win, though McQueen will not, and it's because 12 Years a Slave is more of a Best Picture type film. Although Gravity is not really science fiction (there's nothing about it that couldn't happen, I guess) it's nerdy enough to qualify, and no science fiction has ever won an Oscar. Still, I would not be surprised at all if it wins, as it is much more of a crowd pleaser than the didactic Slave, which is also much more difficult to sit through.
Of the other seven films, American Hustle seemed to be a player at one point, after winning the SAG ensemble award, but then again so did The Birdcage. It's stock has dropped a lot after losing the PGA, the DGA, and BAFTA (they award two--Best Picture and Best British Picture; 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture, directed by an Englishman, while Gravity, directed by a Mexican and starring Americans, won Best British Film).
If we go by the directing nominations, we can surmise that the next two in the voting will be The Wolf of Wall Street and Nebraska. Wolf is far too debauched and controversial to win, while Nebraska is too cranky and bleak.
The other four films, without directing nominations, figure to settle at the bottom. In the late fall I thought Captain Phillips had a chance to be a spoiler, but it got no director nomination and even Tom Hanks, the former golden boy himself, got skunked. Dallas Buyers Club will get two acting awards, but that's all, even thought it's my personal favorite. Her, which I think does qualify as science fiction, is a player in the Original Screenplay category, but will not win Best Picture, and Philomena is the trailer, the film that was probably the last pancake off the griddle.
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Should win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should have been nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis
My complete predictions:
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actor: Matthew McConnaughey
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty
Best Animated Film: Frozen
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Editing: Captain Phillips
Best Production Design: Gravity
Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Song: "Let It Go"
Best Musical Score: Gravity
Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom
Best Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6
Best Makeup and Hairstyles: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Animated Short Subject: Get a Horse!
Best Live Action Short Subject: Helium
Best Sound Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Gravity
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