The 91st Academy Awards: Best Actress

Ever since The Wife debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival all the way back in September, 2017, the Oscar was Glenn Close's. Not only because it really is a fantastic performance, the best of hers since Dangerous Liaisons, but because Close is due. She has more nominations than any living person without winning. At 71, it could be her last shot.

But then Lady Gaga came along in A Star Is Born. Everybody was shocked that she could act. It really is a tour de force. The year was shaping up like 1968, when it was Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl vs. Katharine Hepburn in The Lion in Winter--and they tied.

I don't think this will be a tie, though. Close has regained the lead. She beat Gaga at the Golden Globes, and the SAG awards. Oscar voters can vote for Gaga for Best Song. Close has made two great, emotional speeches. Her moment awaits.

The other three nominees can sit aside. Olivia Colman, as the deranged Queen Ann in The Favourite, could be a shocker (she did win BAFTA, but then again she is British). Melissa McCarthy proved her dramatic chops as the forger Lee Israel in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but there's too much competition here. Yalitza Aparicio is one of examples when Oscar shows its love for amateur actors. Quite a few have been nominated, and a few (Harold Russell, Haing S. Ngor) have won. But there's just no say Aparicio comes out on top here. Her role in Roma as a beloved maid and nanny is very passive for Oscar. I'm sure she will enjoy her winter in Hollywood. It remains to be seen if she ever acts again.

Will win: Glenn Close
Could win: Lady Gaga
Should win: Glenn Close
Should have been nominated: Toni Collette, Hereditary.