The 91st Academy Awards: Best Supporting Actress

There are two acting categories this year that are nail-biters, between two people. One of them is Best Supporting Actress.

We can start by eliminating the two women from The Favourite, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone. Although they were both great, Weisz in particular, they have both won before and how does someone choose? Also, they, along with Olivia Colman, are three leads in the picture, so there is category fraud here.

Marina de Tavara, playing the mother in Roma, will also have to be pleased with the nomination. Not too many prognosticators had her in the final five, which just shows how widely liked Roma is. I don't know if she'll have a career in English-language films, but if she doesn't she will be one of the most obscure nominees in recent years.

So that leaves too. Initially many thought that this was Amy Adams' year, for playing Lynne Cheney in Vice. It's a juicy yet brief role, and her big moment was in a speech motivating Dick Cheney to become something. If only he hadn't. This is Adams' sixth nomination, but she has never one, so I'm sure the Academy will throw her some sympathy votes.

But, enter Regina King, as the devoted mother in If Beale Street Could Talk. King won the Golden Globe, but wasn't even nominated by SAG, which gave Emily Blunt the statuette for A Quiet Place. She wasn't nominated or an Oscar, so this category is anybody's guess between Adams and King. I have a hunch that King, who plays the more sympathetic role, and is more a part of the story than Adams, will eke out a win. But don't sleep on Adams.

Will win: Regina King
Could win: Amy Adams
Should win: Rachel Weisz
Should have been nominated: Claire Foy, First Man