Final Oscar Picks

Okay, here goes with my last round of picks for Oscar, which are awarded on Sunday. I'll discuss Picture and Director, then make a selection in every category, except for short subjects, because I have no idea there.

Picture and Director should go hand in hand this year, and everything points to the Coen Brothers and No Country For Old Men. It has one an unprecedented string of precursors: The DGA, SAG, Writer's Guild, and PGA. The only awards it didn't pick up are the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which both went to Atonement, but the Globes have been increasingly at odds with Oscar and BAFTA clearly is more enamored with a home-grown picture. Some seem to be reluctant to join the No Country bandwagon, perhaps because it is too violent, or perhaps because of the ambiguous ending. As for the first part--since when is violence been a problem? The Departed, Braveheart, two Godfather pictures, The Silence of the Lambs, Unforgiven, plus many more have been violence-themed pictures. As for the ending, clearly that left some viewers with a bad taste in their mouths, but I don't see it as an impediment to the film taking the top prize.

If you were able to time travel and came back from next week to tell me that No Country does not win, I suppose I'd have to assume that Juno did. It's the biggest box office earner of the quintet (the Oscar for the past generation or so has almost always gone to one of the two highest-grossing pictures of the five; No Country is second to Juno) and there's this immeasurable "buzz" people talk about (usually people who don't have any other facts). But Juno is a comedy, it was not nominated for editing (the last Best Picture that didn't have an editing nod--Ordinary People) and a backlash from those who have stepped up and said they hated it, usually because the dialogue is so precious.

I don't see the other three films having much of a shot. Until recently David Poland was touting Michael Clayton, but I think that's only because it's his favorite. Clayton has won nothing until this point, and is perceived as box office underachiever. Yes, it could be a compromise candidate, but I don't think a compromise is necessary in this category.

There Will Be Blood is a critical darling, but even in most critics' organizations it still lost to No Country. I have a very hard time believing that a film this idiosynchratic could possibly win out, and since Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoo-in for actor perhaps that will be seen as enough to honor this singularly distinctive movie. As for Atonement, which did win the Globe and BAFTA, it has been on quite a rollercoast through the Oscar season. First it was a front-runner, then it slid off the radar, only to have a resurrection to get back in the hunt. But it has not been nominated for Best Director or editing.

Usually the Best Director winner is the helmer of the Best Picture, although that trend has been spotty recently, but there's no real reason to think it won't happen this year. Joel and Ethan Coen have been the toast of the season, and they have never won this award (they did win for writing Fargo). The only question is how many Oscars they will win, as they are also nominated for producing, writing and editing No Country (the latter under the name Roderick Jaynes).

If they don't win, who would? Some people think Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, but this would be a monumental statistical aberration. A director of a picture that was not nominated for Best Picture hasn't won since before John McCain was born, and no one who has directed a picture not in the English language has ever won. Schnabel, who may very well attend the ceremony in his pajamas, is probably admired by directors' because of his visual style, may have a better shot than many who are in the same situation, but I don't see him winning.
As for Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood, Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, and Jason Reitman for Juno, we have these lovely parting gifts. It will be a Coen night.

So, for the record, my predictions:
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan (but I'm almost persuaded it will be Tilda Swinton)
Best Original Screenplay: Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Best Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Best Costumes: Sweeeney Todd
Best Art Direction: Sweeney Todd
Best Song: "Falling Slowly", from Once
Best Score: Atonement
Best Sound Mixing: No Country For Old Men
Best Sound Editing: Transformers
Best Visual Effects: Transformers
Best Foreign Film: The Counterfeiters (when in doubt, go with a World War II movie)
Best Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Best Animated Film: Ratatouille
Best Documentary Feature: War/Dance (I'm subscribing to the theory that a positive film will emerge as the winner as the three films about Iraq will split the vote)