Oscars--Best Supporting Actor and Actress

As "cautious optimism" seems to be the mantra of choice in Hollywood these days, with an end to the writer's strike looming, it looks like there will be an Oscar ceremony of some normalcy. In any event, the hardware will be handed out, whether anyone is there to receive it or anyone is watching. Without further ado, this will be my first of three posts on the major categories for this year's awards.

Most of the acting categories have solid frontrunners, and perhaps there isn't a surer thing than Javier Bardem winning for No Country For Old Men. His Anton Chigurh is one of the more vivid characterizations on celluloid this year, and perhaps the most memorable psychopath on film since Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lecter. What is surprising about this is that Bardem plays the role without chewing the scenery, instead choosing to express the terror calmly and matter-of-factly. Who, having this seen this film, can forget the scene with the gas-station clerk, in which his life is decided by a flip of the coin? Absolutely chilling.

If anyone is going to put up a fight in this category it would probably be Hal Holbrook as the elderly man who befriends Chris McCandless in Into the Wild. Holbrook is a well-respected actor of film, TV and stage, and has his first ever nomination at the age of 82. However, I'm not sure the meager size of the role, or that it comes so late in the film, won't handicap him against Bardem.

I liked Tom Wilkinson as the lawyer who has a breakdown in Michael Clayton very much, but this just isn't his year. The same can be said for Philip Seymour Hoffman as a CIA agent in Charlie Wilson's War. Hoffman's best performance this year, in my opinion, was in Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. And, in the "thanks for playing" category, is Casey Affleck, as Robert Ford in the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Unfortunately I have yet to see this film (it's listed as a long wait on my Netflix queue), but I understand he's quite good, even if it is a lead role. But given that this film came and went very quickly and the nature of the competition, Affleck will have to be happy with the nomination (interestingly enough, he and brother Ben are now one of the few pairs of brothers to both be nominated for Oscars. The Phoenix brothers, River and Joaquin, are the only that were both nominated for acting categories).

If the Supporting Actor category is a slam-dunk, Supporting Actress is a good old-fashioned horse race. I could see any one of four of the nominees winning. The favorite on the blogosphere seems to be Cate Blanchett, as an avatar of Bob Dylan in I'm Not There. I, however, don't think she will win. First of all, she won three years ago. It's rare for a performer to win two Oscars in such a short period (of course it does happen). Secondly, this role and performance does not scream Oscar to me. The film and performance is a kind of inscrutable work that doesn't lend itself to appeal to older generation of Academy members, even if Bob Dylan is in his sixties. This performance was loved by critics, but I don't think that love will extend to the more staid Academy voting bloc.

Another possibility in this category is Ruby Dee, as the mother of a Harlem gang boss in American Gangster. Certainly her win at the SAG awards strengthens her case. She is much in the same category as Holbrook, a well-respected octogenarian with a long career, primarily on stage. But the Oscar doesn't automatically go to the oldest one of the bunch (ask Gloria Stuart). Dee's role is, to put it kindly, brief, and let's face it--if the role had been played by a woman of no renown it would not have even been a blip on the Oscar radar. This nomination was an acknowledgement of the respect for Dee's career. For her to actually win would be something of a miscarriage of justice, I think.

I'm in the minority, but I think Amy Ryan of Gone Baby Gone will win. She swept many of the critics' awards, and the role, as the foul-mouthed and irresponsible mother of a missing child, has the kind of histrionics that is perfect Oscar-bait. That she's a virtual unknown is not a big impediment (see Mercedes Ruehl). I also think Tilda Swinton, as the corporate counsel in Michael Clayton, could be in the mix as well, if some of these aforementioned performers split the vote. It may take only a few points above twenty-percent to win this race, and Swinton, who is very good in the part, could pull off an upset.

The only person in this category who would really stun me with a win is Saorsie Ronan, as the young prevaricator in Atonement. Oscar has been kind to youngsters in this category, as the only minors to win Oscars have come from this category (there are three: Patty Duke, Tatum O'Neal, and Anna Paquin). However there are too many reasons for voters to choose someone else here.

So, Javier Bardem and Amy Ryan are my two picks here. Next week, Actor and Actress.