Oscars--Best Actor and Actress

As with the Supporting races, the lead Actor and Actress race has one huge front-runner in the male category, and a more interesting race in the female. However, I feel relatively comfortable in calling a winner in both races.

In the actor category, I think anyone hoping someone other than Daniel Day-Lewis will win for his ferocious performance as oilman Daniel Plainview in There Will Be Blood will be sorely disappointed. Day-Lewis has won the Globe and the SAG and pretty much swept every critics' award from Seattle to Miami. He did win this award once before, but that was 18 years ago, and this year seems a perfect opportunity to grant him the kind of esteemed status worthy of those who have won two Best Actor awards, as many herald him as the modern-day Olivier. He has two scenes that stand out as far as "pay attention to this," the baptism scene, in which he is forced to acknowledge that he abandoned his son, and the already legendary "milkshake" scene that ends the film.

If we are to entertain the possibility of an upset, who would it be? Some other Oscar blogs seem to think George Clooney would be the one. True, he certainly dominates as the title role in Michael Clayton, and he is something of a prince of Hollywood, but he only won two years for Best Supporting Actor for Syriana. I can see Clooney winning again someday, but not this soon and not against the likes of Day-Lewis.

Johnny Depp, way back in the spring and summer, was thought to stand a great chance of winning for the title role as the vengeful barber in Sweeney Todd, especially since he opened up himself for the possibility of great embarrassment by singing, but the film died a quick death, and again, there's Mr. Day-Lewis. In the also-ran status are Viggo Mortensen, as the Russian gangster in Eastern Promises, and Tommy Lee Jones, as the father of a murdered vet in In the Valley of Elah. Both are worthy nominations, and it's great to see Mortensen finally nominated for something, but they needn't work too hard on their acceptance speeches.

The Best Actress category is more interesting, but has a solid front-runner: Julie Christie, as the sufferer of Alzheimer's disease in Away From Her. Christie has many of the variables working for her. She's a previous winner, but few voters have a vivid memory of her first win, which was for Darling 42 years ago. She hearkens back to the glamour of 1960s Hollywood (an interesting statement, since many at the time didn't think the sixties Hollywood had any glamour, compared to the thirties and forties, but everything is relative), and she plays a character with a debilitating illness (and plays it damn well).

There certainly is the ripe possibility of someone else winning, though. Ellen Page is the flavor-of-the-month. Going from an almost complete unknown to magazine cover-girl and star of 100-million-plus Juno has many speculating that this will lead her to Oscar victory, but hold on--if she does win, she would be the youngest ever in this category (currently it's Marlee Matlin) and the Academy has a way of putting up a stop sign and declaring, "too much, too soon." Voters may choose to vote for Christie, who has said Away From Her will be her last film, rather than Page, who would seem to have a bright future (even if she is going to star in the directorial debut by Drew Barrymore).

Page's chances may be improved if Christie loses votes to Marion Cotillard, who stars as French chanteuse Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose. Cotillard, a stunningly beautiful woman, undergoes quite a transformation into the ugly duckling Piaf, but that kind of trick only earns plaudits if people know what Cotillard actually looks like. She has gotten some media coverage lately, so this could earn her some votes. But, in the seventy-nine-year-history of the Awards, only two performers have won for non-English language pictures (Sophia Loren and Roberto Benigni--Robert DeNiro spoke almost nothing but Italian in The Godfather, Part II, but most of that picture was in English and he is an American, of course) so that works against her.

The consolation prizes will go to Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney. Blanchett is in the hunt for a Best Supporting Actress prize, and that will no doubt lower an already minimal vote total for her return to the role as Queen Elizabeth in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. This film got dreadful reviews and has some rather silly moments, such as her addressing the troops in full body-armor. That Blanchett got a nomination for this film suggests she is thought of very highly by the Academy actors' branch, but not so high as to give her a win. As for Linney, the nomination as the daughter dealing with an aged father in The Savages comes as something of a surprise. She was on a lot of shortlists in the fall, but seemed to go off the radar during the precursors. I would be gobsmacked if she won.

The lead acting awards should be an all-British Isles affair come February 24. Next week, a look at Picture and Director and the rest of the categories.