Oscar Predictions 2010, First Round

Next week the Golden Globe nominations are announced and the onslaught of critic's awards commences, so it's a good time to get my first round of predictions on the record. Of course, with so many Oscarphiles publishing their picks, it's just a matter of consolidating everyone else's thoughts. In this Internet age, there are few surprises when it comes to Oscar nominations, and thus few bold predictions.

BEST PICTURE

Locks: The King's Speech, The Social Network, Inception, Toy Story 3

Safe Bets: True Grit, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours

That leaves three slots. I'm going to go with Black Swan, despite some critical potshots, because it seems to have created a cultural buzz (the reference on 30 Rock last night was hysterical), and has done good box office. I'm also going to guess, in a bit of wishful thinking, that Winter's Bone gets in. Finally, I think that only one of the Eastern Massachusetts blue collar films gets in, and that will be The Fighter, not The Town.

Also Possible: Another Year, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole, The Way Back

BEST DIRECTOR

Locks: David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)

Safe Bets: Christopher Nolan (Inception), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

That leaves, in my view, Danny Boyle (127 Hours) and Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) fighting it out for the last spot. I'll go with Aronofsky.

Also Possible: Lisa Chodolenko (The Kids Are All Right), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Mike Leigh (Another Year)

BEST ACTOR

Locks: Colin Firth (The King's Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)

Safe Bets: Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Robert Duvall (Get Low)

The fifth spot should go to either Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) or Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine). I think Eisenberg will get it, but I wouldn't be shocked by a snub.

Also possible: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

BEST ACTRESS

Locks: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Safe Bet: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)

The remaining two nominees should come from three actresses: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Lesley Manville (Another Year), and Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right). Manville is supposed to very impressive in what some call a supporting performance, and the Academy has been kind to Mike Leigh films, but I'm going with the redheads, Kidman and Moore.

Also Possible: Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Locks: Christian Bale (The Fighter), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Safe Bets: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)

The last spot is tough to figure. It could be Matt Damon for True Grit, Justin Timberlake or Armie Hammer for The Social Network, or Bill Murray for Get Low, but I'm going to go with Jeremy Renner for The Town, the kind of performance that often gets Oscar plaudits.

Also possible: Ed Harris (The Way Back), Michael Douglas (Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps). Never count out sentiment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lock: Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)

Safe Bets: Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Lots of possibilities for the last two slots. I'm going to go with Amy Adams (The Fighter), who seems to be an Academy favorite, and, in a bit of a surprise, Sissy Spacek (Get Low).

Also Possible: Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Barbara Hershey (Black Swan), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham)

The landscape will no doubt shift over the next six weeks, and I'll have my final predictions before the Oscar nominations are announced on January 25th.