Oscar 2013: Best Actor: McConaissance

In 1996, if you had told me that Matthew McConaughey would win the Best Actor Oscar in 2014, I would have nodded in belief, wondering if it wouldn't have been his second Oscar by now. He had burst upon the scene in A Time to Kill, and wowed everyone. A star was born.

But if you had told me the same thing six years ago, when he did a movie called Surfer, Dude, I would have snorted in derision. By then, McConaughey had wasted any good will and was doing a series of lame rom-coms, and his image was as a perpetually stoned, bongo-playing, shirt-eschewing slacker.

But the man made corrections. He took on better roles, starting with Magic Mike. This year he made three good movies, two of them--The Wolf of Wall Street and Dallas Buyers Club, nominated for Best Picture. The latter of which is the role he will likely a week from Sunday night.

McConaughey's transformation isn't the only factor that will lead to victory--he also deserves it. His portrayal of AIDS sufferer and activist Ron Woodruff is award-winning stuff, both in the changes to his body and his elemental rage. I found it a gripping performance, and will cheer his win.

This is one of those categories that makes me wonder what the vote tally will be. The interesting race here is for second, as there are three performers that could take that, perhaps easing the way further for McConaughey. Lately Leonardo DiCaprio, as the amoral Wolf of Wall Street, is generating some heat among Oscar ninnies. Perhaps it's because as he nears forty he's fully gone from teen heart throb to seasoned superduperstar. But he won't beat McConaughey.

Chiwotel Ejiofor gives a performance at least as equal to McConaughey's, as free man turned slave Solomon Northrup in 12 Years a Slave. He won the BAFTA, but perhaps that's because he's British. I would love to see a tie, actually.

Bruce Dern, as the befuddled old man in Nebraska, may generated some good will after a long career. He's 77, the second oldest nominee in the category, and would be the oldest winner (hard to believe he'd be older than Henry Fonda was, only 76 when he won for On Golden Pond). Dern, who is one of the last links to the rebellious old Hollywood of the '60s, has played the game, but it won't be enough.

The likely last place holder in this quintet is Christian Bale, as con man Irving Rosenfeld in American Hustle. This is not because of the performance, which is no less than any other in the group, and has the body transformation common in Academy favorites. But he won only two years ago, and his inclusion here was something of a surprise, coming in instead of Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips and Robert Redford for All Is Lost.

Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should win: Matthew McConaughey
Should have been nominated: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips