Oscar 2013: Best Actress: Woody's Women

In spite of what you may think of Woody Allen as a person, it can't be denied that he has written some great female characters. In fact, of the 23 performers he has directed to acting Oscar nominations (second only to William Wyler), 18 of them have been women, and five have won (Diane Keaton, Dianne Wiest twice, Mira Sorvino, and Penelope Cruz). That total will go up to six after this year's Oscars.

Two performers are nominated for Blue Jasmine, Allen's latest film. Sally Hawkins is unlikely to win for Best Supporting Actress, but Cate Blanchett, as a 21st-century Blanche Dubois, is a lead-pipe cinch. She's been the favorite since the film opened, and only the ruckus raised by the allegations of child abuse against Allen has cast any doubts. But I doubt this will have any effect at all. After all, this is the organization that gave convicted child rapist Roman Polanski an Oscar. Word is some voters have felt sympathy for Blanchett, since she's just an innocent bystander.

If for some reason Blanchett doesn't win, it could be any of three performers winning. I'm kind of surprised there isn't more heat around Amy Adams, as the con woman in American Hustle. Of the five, she's the only one not to have previously won, and she's 0 for 4. But I would imagine voters think she's young enough to win later. She has won absolutely no precursors (but then again, neither has anyone else).

Another dark horse is Judi Dench, in the touching portrayal of an elderly Irish woman searching for the son taken from her by the church in Philomena. This is Dench's seventh nomination, all after the age of 63. She has won, in Best Supporting Actress, for a role that was about 8 minutes long, so voters may want to add another one to her mantle.

Sandra Bullock, as the astronaut stranded in space in Gravity, has been mentioned in some blogs lately as yet another dark horse. This will only happen if Gravity really makes a sweep--if Bullock wins, Gravity may win every award it's nominated for. She won only four years ago, and the competition is too strong.

Finally, Meryl Streep, as the drug-addicted matriarch in August: Osage County. Streep finally got her third Oscar two years ago, and doesn't figure to win again until at least her 80s. Besides, the movie wasn't exactly beloved.

Will win: Cate Blanchett
Could win: Amy Adams
Should win: Cate Blanchett
Should have been nominated: Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha